TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13152502
Played Sep 18Finished
Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119911611119911
Patrik Sturma
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:20 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Neuwirth Jnr to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJaroslav Neuwirth Jnr above · Patrik Sturma below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 97 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr at 54.0%
97 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr 15–18 Patrik Sturma Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr has won 15 of their 33 meetings.
They have already met 2 times today · last one 1h before this match
Sturma beat Jnr 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:20What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Sturma
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-18 in 33
Sturma
Correct
gap of 3 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jnr 1327 vs Sturma 1317
Jnr
Wrong
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jnr 60% vs Sturma 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jnr 40% vs Sturma 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jnr -1 · Sturma +3
Sturma
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sturma) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJnr 1.91 / Sturma 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Sturma)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13152502
Jnr1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 23 of 56
Down 0–1, comes back30% 8 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 10
Sturma1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite47% won 62 of 133
Up 2–0, closes it85% 23 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it51% 34 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJnr3wins
AwaySturma7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSturma leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJnr33.3%2 of 6
AwaySturma75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jnr6Sturma4n = 10Jnr took 6 of 10
S2Jnr4Sturma6n = 10Sturma took 6 of 10
S3Jnr1Sturma9n = 10Sturma took 9 of 10
S4Jnr3Sturma5n = 8Sturma took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricJnrSturmaJ − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.439.9−3.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJnrSturmaBasisWin rate · lifetime137 / 260 vs 421 / 86352.7%48.8%137 / 260 vs 421 / 863Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.939.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SturmaJnr 1.91/Sturma 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Sturma · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Sturma won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 18 · 13:10J. Jnr52111381192P. Sturma47315117113
WSep 18 · 09:40J. Jnr50111189113P. Sturma4779111192
LSep 12 · 18:15J. Jnr32611781P. Sturma3811511113
LSep 12 · 17:15J. Jnr34149561P. Sturma45121111113
WSep 12 · 15:45J. Jnr4111118113P. Sturma29851151
LSep 1 · 14:45J. Jnr2412750P. Sturma361411113
LAug 15 · 15:45J. Jnr136430P. Sturma331111113
LJul 14 · 18:15J. Jnr371171361P. Sturma4361115113
WJun 30 · 17:10J. Jnr4171112113P. Sturma341141091
LJun 30 · 14:10J. Jnr40168971P. Sturma47141111113
J. Jnr10
LSep 18 · 15:40P. Chvojka2.251111113J. Jnr1.578670WSep 18 · 15:10D. Muller2.385970J. Jnr1.531111113LSep 18 · 13:10J. Jnr1.80111381192P. Sturma1.91315117113WSep 18 · 11:40J. Jnr1.671111113Z. Chovancik2.109870WSep 18 · 10:40J. Jnr1.40121111113L. Snr2.75146561WSep 18 · 09:40J. Jnr2.25111189113P. Sturma1.5779111192LSep 12 · 20:49I. Jemelka2.00591113113J. Jnr1.73111151192LSep 12 · 20:15J. Jnr1.91101171192L. Jr1.80127116113LSep 12 · 18:45I. Jemelka2.005121112113J. Jnr1.73111061452LSep 12 · 18:15P. Sturma1.6711511113J. Jnr2.10611781
P. Sturma10
WSep 18 · 16:10P. Sturma1.7381111113D. Muller2.00112761LSep 18 · 14:40P. Chvojka1.571111113P. Sturma2.258620WSep 18 · 13:10J. Jnr1.80111381192P. Sturma1.91315117113WSep 18 · 12:10L. Snr1.80117841P. Sturma1.9181111113WSep 18 · 11:10P. Sturma2.00111152113Z. Chovancik1.7377111162LSep 18 · 09:40J. Jnr2.25111189113P. Sturma1.5779111192LSep 14 · 12:34P. Chvojka1.7312124113P. Sturma2.0010101191LSep 14 · 12:10P. Sturma1.679440P. Chvojka2.101111113LSep 14 · 10:40L. Jr1.67312411113P. Sturma2.10111011692WSep 12 · 18:15P. Sturma1.6711511113J. Jnr2.10611781
Upcoming Matches
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P. Sturma
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