TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13149358
Played Sep 18Finished
Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1214116115116––
Lukas Krupnik Snr
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:01 and never touched — 66.3% is still 66.3%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Neuwirth Jnr to win
66.3%
66.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJaroslav Neuwirth Jnr above · Lukas Krupnik Snr below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 76 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr at 66.3%
76 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr 3–1 Lukas Krupnik Snr Lukas Krupnik Snr has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:01What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Jnr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Jnr
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jnr 1303 vs Snr 1322
Snr
Wrong
both rated, 19 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jnr 20% vs Snr 60%
Snr
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jnr 50% vs Snr 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jnr +1 · Snr +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Jnr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Snr form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJnr 1.40 / Snr 2.75
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Jnr)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13149358
Jnr1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 42 of 77
Up 2–0, closes it87% 20 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it69% 27 of 39
Snr2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 19 of 48
Down 0–1, comes back17% 5 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeJnr3wins
AwaySnr1wins
1 of 4 to a deciderJnr leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJnr75%3 of 4
AwaySnrn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jnr4Snr0n = 4Jnr took 4 of 4
S2Jnr3Snr1n = 4Jnr took 3 of 4
S3Jnr2Snr2n = 4split evenly
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricJnrSnrJ − SBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set40+4of 4Avg pointsper match38.828.5+10.3per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJnrSnrBasisWin rate · lifetime135 / 257 vs 61 / 13352.5%45.9%135 / 257 vs 61 / 133Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.937.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JnrJnr 1.40/Snr 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.3%
Jnr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Jnr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WAug 14 · 13:10J. Jnr351113113L. Snr2271140
WAug 14 · 10:10J. Jnr331111113L. Snr236980
LJun 29 · 12:40J. Jnr46119101152L. Snr49911126113
WJun 29 · 11:15J. Jnr4111118113L. Snr20321141
J. Jnr10
WSep 18 · 11:40J. Jnr1.671111113Z. Chovancik2.109870WSep 18 · 09:40J. Jnr2.25111189113P. Sturma1.5779111192LSep 12 · 20:49I. Jemelka2.00591113113J. Jnr1.73111151192LSep 12 · 20:15J. Jnr1.91101171192L. Jr1.80127116113LSep 12 · 18:45I. Jemelka2.005121112113J. Jnr1.73111061452LSep 12 · 18:15P. Sturma1.6711511113J. Jnr2.10611781LSep 12 · 17:15J. Jnr2.00149561P. Sturma1.73121111113WSep 12 · 15:45J. Jnr2.2511118113P. Sturma1.57851151WSep 12 · 14:45J. Jnr1.83611911113M. Sobota1.8311711362WSep 12 · 13:45J. Jnr1.831111113P. Chvojka1.838680
L. Snr10
WSep 18 · 10:10Z. Chovancik2.507570L. Snr1.501111113WSep 16 · 08:50L. Snr1.571111113L. Zustina2.253770LSep 16 · 08:15L. Snr1.5793111182R. Zajac2.25111199113WSep 16 · 06:45L. Zustina1.834970L. Snr1.831111113LSep 16 · 06:15J. Sindler1.6171111113L. Snr2.20118661LSep 15 · 08:43J. Matus1.3311611113L. Snr3.25911821LSep 15 · 08:10L. Snr2.25611971J. Matus1.5711911113LSep 15 · 06:40I. Jemelka1.611111113L. Snr2.208680LSep 15 · 06:10A. Strelec2.001111123L. Snr1.7354100WSep 8 · 12:43P. Sturma1.83811991L. Snr1.8311411113
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