TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13149360
Played Sep 18Finished
Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
117119811911119
Patrik Sturma
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:01 and never touched — 62.5% is still 62.5%
Graded at full timePatrik Sturma to win
62.5%
62.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJaroslav Neuwirth Jnr above · Patrik Sturma below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 97 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Patrik Sturma at 62.5%
97 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr 14–17 Patrik Sturma Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr has won 14 of their 31 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:01What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Sturma
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-17 in 31
Sturma
Wrong
gap of 3 in 31, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jnr 1293 vs Sturma 1303
Sturma
Wrong
both rated, 10 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jnr 0% vs Sturma 0%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jnr 50% vs Sturma 30%
Jnr
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jnr -5 · Sturma -7
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Sturma) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sturma form (0%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJnr 2.25 / Sturma 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Sturma)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13149360
Jnr2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 23 of 56
Down 0–1, comes back30% 8 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 10
Sturma1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite47% won 62 of 133
Up 2–0, closes it85% 23 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it51% 34 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJnr3wins
AwaySturma7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderSturma leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJnr40%2 of 5
AwaySturma80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jnr5Sturma5n = 10split evenly
S2Jnr5Sturma5n = 10split evenly
S3Jnr1Sturma9n = 10Sturma took 9 of 10
S4Jnr2Sturma6n = 8Sturma took 6 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricJnrSturmaJ − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match33.439.6−6.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJnrSturmaBasisWin rate · lifetime134 / 256 vs 417 / 86052.3%48.5%134 / 256 vs 417 / 860Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.839.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SturmaJnr 2.25/Sturma 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Sturma · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Jnr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 12 · 18:15J. Jnr32611781P. Sturma3811511113
LSep 12 · 17:15J. Jnr34149561P. Sturma45121111113
WSep 12 · 15:45J. Jnr4111118113P. Sturma29851151
LSep 1 · 14:45J. Jnr2412750P. Sturma361411113
LAug 15 · 15:45J. Jnr136430P. Sturma331111113
LJul 14 · 18:15J. Jnr371171361P. Sturma4361115113
WJun 30 · 17:10J. Jnr4171112113P. Sturma341141091
LJun 30 · 14:10J. Jnr40168971P. Sturma47141111113
LJun 29 · 17:20J. Jnr25612341P. Sturma43111011113
WJun 29 · 14:15J. Jnr47111186113P. Sturma4899111182
J. Jnr10
WSep 18 · 10:40J. Jnr1.40121111113L. Snr2.75146561LSep 12 · 20:49I. Jemelka2.00591113113J. Jnr1.73111151192LSep 12 · 20:15J. Jnr1.91101171192L. Jr1.80127116113LSep 12 · 18:45I. Jemelka2.005121112113J. Jnr1.73111061452LSep 12 · 18:15P. Sturma1.6711511113J. Jnr2.10611781LSep 12 · 17:15J. Jnr2.00149561P. Sturma1.73121111113WSep 12 · 15:45J. Jnr2.2511118113P. Sturma1.57851151WSep 12 · 14:45J. Jnr1.83611911113M. Sobota1.8311711362WSep 12 · 13:45J. Jnr1.831111113P. Chvojka1.838680WSep 3 · 17:18L. Jr1.73117311102J. Jnr2.00411118123
P. Sturma10
LSep 14 · 12:34P. Chvojka1.7312124113P. Sturma2.0010101191LSep 14 · 12:10P. Sturma1.679440P. Chvojka2.101111113LSep 14 · 10:40L. Jr1.67312411113P. Sturma2.10111011692LSep 14 · 10:10J. Sindler1.7311911123P. Sturma2.007117101LSep 14 · 09:05P. Sturma2.0011741112J. Sindler1.73711119113LSep 14 · 08:10J. Matus1.838201111113P. Sturma1.83111871392LSep 14 · 07:10P. Sturma2.3811118942A. Strelec1.53681111113WSep 12 · 18:15P. Sturma1.6711511113J. Jnr2.10611781WSep 12 · 17:15J. Jnr2.00149561P. Sturma1.73121111113LSep 12 · 15:45J. Jnr2.2511118113P. Sturma1.57851151
Upcoming Matches
J. Jnr
P. Sturma
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.