TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13149240
Played Sep 18Finished
Zdenek Chovancik
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711511711––––
Lukas Krupnik Snr
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:18 and never touched — 67.9% is still 67.9%
Graded at full timeLukas Krupnik Snr to win
67.9%
67.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingZdenek Chovancik above · Lukas Krupnik Snr below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 52 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Lukas Krupnik Snr at 67.9%
52 points played in total.
H2H Zdenek Chovancik 2–7 Lukas Krupnik Snr Zdenek Chovancik has won 2 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:18What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Snr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-7 in 9
Snr
Correct
gap of 5 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chovancik 1331 vs Snr 1308
Chovancik
Wrong
both rated, 24 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chovancik 80% vs Snr 40%
Chovancik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chovancik 70% vs Snr 30%
Chovancik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chovancik -1 · Snr +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Snr) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Snr form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChovancik 2.50 / Snr 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Snr)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13149240
Chovancik2.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog50% won 14 of 28
Down 0–1, comes back33% 4 of 12
Down 0–2, comes back14% 1 of 7
Snr1.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite43% won 18 of 42
Up 2–0, closes it92% 11 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it65% 13 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeChovancik2wins
AwaySnr7wins
3 of 9 to a deciderSnr leads 7–2, and 3 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChovancikn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwaySnr75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chovancik1Snr8n = 9Snr took 8 of 9
S2Chovancik3Snr6n = 9Snr took 6 of 9
S3Chovancik4Snr5n = 9Snr took 5 of 9
S4Chovancik2Snr3n = 5Snr took 3 of 5
S5Chovancik1Snr2n = 3Snr took 2 of 3
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away222%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away444%
These 9 meetings
MetricChovancikSnrC − SBasisWins27−5in 9 meetingsFirst set18−7of 9Avg pointsper match30.338.2−7.9per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChovancikSnrBasisWin rate · lifetime33 / 81 vs 60 / 13240.7%45.5%33 / 81 vs 60 / 132Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SnrChovancik 2.50/Snr 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.1%
Snr · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Snr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LAug 17 · 09:15Z. Chovancik219480L. Snr331111113
LAug 17 · 06:45Z. Chovancik205690L. Snr331111113
WJul 13 · 08:40Z. Chovancik3411111113L. Snr33116971
LJul 13 · 08:10Z. Chovancik28611651L. Snr4011711113
WJun 23 · 12:40Z. Chovancik44651111113L. Snr4311118762
LJun 23 · 11:15Z. Chovancik42116111222L. Snr49511814113
LJun 12 · 08:45Z. Chovancik4781111982L. Snr47119511113
LJun 12 · 08:15Z. Chovancik205780L. Snr331111113
LMay 28 · 08:10Z. Chovancik173590L. Snr331111113
Z. Chovancik10
LSep 11 · 13:20Z. Chovancik1.771970J. Sindler1.871111113WSep 11 · 12:15J. Sindler1.8011660Z. Chovancik1.911311113WSep 11 · 11:15Z. Chovancik1.837111110113P. Sturma1.8311961272WSep 11 · 09:45T. Stempak1.8091161182Z. Chovancik1.91118119113WSep 2 · 13:15P. Sturma1.531061171Z. Chovancik2.3812117113WSep 2 · 12:10Z. Chovancik1.5711116113R. Zajac2.25571141LSep 2 · 10:40P. Sturma1.73511611143Z. Chovancik2.00114118122WSep 2 · 10:10F. Mandrysz1.6791113101Z. Chovancik2.1011515123LAug 17 · 09:15L. Snr1.531111113Z. Chovancik2.389480WAug 17 · 08:15Z. Chovancik1.8081111113K. Drozd1.91114621
L. Snr10
LSep 18 · 10:40J. Jnr1.40121111113L. Snr2.75146561WSep 16 · 08:50L. Snr1.571111113L. Zustina2.253770LSep 16 · 08:15L. Snr1.5793111182R. Zajac2.25111199113WSep 16 · 06:45L. Zustina1.834970L. Snr1.831111113LSep 16 · 06:15J. Sindler1.6171111113L. Snr2.20118661LSep 15 · 08:43J. Matus1.3311611113L. Snr3.25911821LSep 15 · 08:10L. Snr2.25611971J. Matus1.5711911113LSep 15 · 06:40I. Jemelka1.611111113L. Snr2.208680LSep 15 · 06:10A. Strelec2.001111123L. Snr1.7354100WAug 17 · 09:15L. Snr1.531111113Z. Chovancik2.389480
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