TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13156743
Played Sep 19Finished
Filip Mandrysz
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
81114128111210611
Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:51 and never touched — 76.6% is still 76.6%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Neuwirth Jnr to win
76.6%
76.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFilip Mandrysz above · Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 103 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr at 76.6%
103 points played in total.
H2H Filip Mandrysz 3–12 Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr Filip Mandrysz has won 3 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:51What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Jnr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-12 in 15
Jnr
Correct
gap of 9 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mandrysz 1345 vs Jnr 1328
Mandrysz
Wrong
both rated, 17 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mandrysz 60% vs Jnr 20%
Mandrysz
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mandrysz 40% vs Jnr 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mandrysz -2 · Jnr -3
Jnr
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Jnr) · live re-read · sealed at 77% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jnr form (20%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMandrysz 2.63 / Jnr 1.44
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Jnr)+1.3pp
TT Cup · #13156743
Mandrysz2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog45% won 56 of 125
Down 0–1, comes back32% 25 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 42
Jnr1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite54% won 44 of 82
Up 2–0, closes it85% 22 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it67% 29 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMandrysz2wins
AwayJnr8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderJnr leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMandrysz33.3%1 of 3
AwayJnr85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mandrysz3Jnr7n = 10Jnr took 7 of 10
S2Mandrysz2Jnr8n = 10Jnr took 8 of 10
S3Mandrysz3Jnr7n = 10Jnr took 7 of 10
S4Mandrysz0Jnr6n = 6Jnr took 6 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricMandryszJnrM − JBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match30.340.1−9.8per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMandryszJnrBasisWin rate · lifetime220 / 438 vs 138 / 26550.2%52.1%220 / 438 vs 138 / 265Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.739.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JnrMandrysz 2.63/Jnr 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.8%
Jnr · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Jnr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 13:45F. Mandrysz187560J. Jnr331111113
LAug 14 · 10:40F. Mandrysz206590J. Jnr331111113
LJul 18 · 16:49F. Mandrysz358121141J. Jnr4511149113
LJul 18 · 14:40F. Mandrysz157440J. Jnr331111113
LJul 15 · 15:45F. Mandrysz174670J. Jnr331111113
LJun 30 · 15:40F. Mandrysz31118841J. Jnr4291111113
WJun 29 · 15:45F. Mandrysz485111110113J. Jnr4411981242
WJun 16 · 13:15F. Mandrysz51111694113J. Jnr50614111182
LJun 16 · 12:15F. Mandrysz302611111J. Jnr4411119133
LJun 16 · 08:45F. Mandrysz3811107101J. Jnr4491211123
F. Mandrysz10
WSep 19 · 12:10P. Sturma1.91119691F. Mandrysz1.8091111113LSep 19 · 09:40J. Sindler1.61111211113F. Mandrysz2.20614581LSep 10 · 09:10F. Mandrysz1.259770R. Zajac3.751111113WSep 10 · 08:10F. Mandrysz1.3061111113R. Zajac3.40118641WSep 10 · 06:40J. Matus1.61910120F. Mandrysz2.201112143WSep 10 · 06:10T. Slivka2.75115781F. Mandrysz1.4021111113WSep 9 · 08:50J. Sindler1.83311381F. Mandrysz1.8311511113LSep 9 · 08:15J. Matus1.80111198113F. Mandrysz1.9175111142LSep 9 · 07:15F. Mandrysz1.67112881A. Strelec2.1061111113LSep 9 · 05:45J. Sindler1.731111113F. Mandrysz2.002960
J. Jnr10
WSep 19 · 11:40J. Sindler1.53117991J. Jnr2.3881111113LSep 19 · 10:10J. Jnr2.00119131182P. Sturma1.73611155113LSep 18 · 16:40J. Jnr1.4412115942D. Muller2.411061111113LSep 18 · 15:40P. Chvojka2.251111113J. Jnr1.578670WSep 18 · 15:10D. Muller2.385970J. Jnr1.531111113LSep 18 · 14:10J. Jnr1.9111961192P. Sturma1.80911119113LSep 18 · 13:10J. Jnr1.80111381192P. Sturma1.91315117113WSep 18 · 11:40J. Jnr1.671111113Z. Chovancik2.109870WSep 18 · 10:40J. Jnr1.40121111113L. Snr2.75146561WSep 18 · 09:40J. Jnr2.25111189113P. Sturma1.5779111192
Upcoming Matches
F. Mandrysz
Nothing scheduled
J. Jnr
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