TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13156733
Played Sep 19Finished
Patrik Sturma
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119911611911––
Filip Mandrysz
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:50 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePatrik Sturma to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPatrik Sturma above · Filip Mandrysz below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 77 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Patrik Sturma at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Patrik Sturma 28–31 Filip Mandrysz Patrik Sturma has won 28 of their 59 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:50What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Mandrysz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
28-31 in 59
Mandrysz
Correct
gap of 3 in 59, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sturma 1327 vs Mandrysz 1323
Sturma
Wrong
both rated, 3 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sturma 40% vs Mandrysz 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sturma 60% vs Mandrysz 40%
Sturma
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sturma -1 · Mandrysz -3
Mandrysz
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Mandrysz) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mandrysz form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSturma 1.91 / Mandrysz 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Mandrysz)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13156733
Sturma1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog49% won 124 of 252
Down 0–1, comes back42% 53 of 126
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 41
Mandrysz1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 69 of 123
Up 2–0, closes it94% 34 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it72% 46 of 64
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSturma6wins
AwayMandrysz4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSturma leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSturma42.9%3 of 7
AwayMandrysz0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sturma7Mandrysz3n = 10Sturma took 7 of 10
S2Sturma4Mandrysz6n = 10Mandrysz took 6 of 10
S3Sturma5Mandrysz5n = 10split evenly
S4Sturma5Mandrysz5n = 10split evenly
S5Sturma2Mandrysz1n = 3Sturma took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSturmaMandryszS − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.838.6+1.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSturmaMandryszBasisWin rate · lifetime424 / 869 vs 220 / 43948.8%50.1%424 / 869 vs 220 / 439Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.537.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MandryszSturma 1.91/Mandrysz 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Mandrysz · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Mandrysz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 11:40P. Sturma46511811113F. Mandrysz4211511692
WAug 30 · 14:10P. Sturma4011117113F. Mandrysz32951171
WAug 30 · 13:10P. Sturma4071111113F. Mandrysz27111691
LAug 30 · 12:10P. Sturma351171071F. Mandrysz4391112113
WAug 20 · 12:40P. Sturma50711119123F. Mandrysz48118811102
LAug 20 · 12:10P. Sturma29115581F. Mandrysz4181111113
LAug 7 · 11:45P. Sturma361178101F. Mandrysz4391111123
WAug 4 · 09:24P. Sturma4112711113F. Mandrysz291011531
WAug 4 · 06:15P. Sturma4011711113F. Mandrysz36711991
LAug 3 · 07:15P. Sturma4111811832F. Mandrysz45411811113
P. Sturma10
LSep 19 · 12:40F. Mandrysz2.00611139113P. Sturma1.73115111192LSep 19 · 10:40J. Sindler1.731511133P. Sturma2.00137110WSep 19 · 10:10J. Jnr2.00119131182P. Sturma1.73611155113LSep 18 · 17:10P. Chvojka1.6111611133P. Sturma2.046112111WSep 18 · 16:10P. Sturma1.7381111113D. Muller2.00112761LSep 18 · 14:40P. Chvojka1.571111113P. Sturma2.258620WSep 18 · 14:10J. Jnr1.9111961192P. Sturma1.80911119113WSep 18 · 13:10J. Jnr1.80111381192P. Sturma1.91315117113WSep 18 · 12:10L. Snr1.80117841P. Sturma1.9181111113WSep 18 · 11:10P. Sturma2.00111152113Z. Chovancik1.7377111162
F. Mandrysz10
WSep 19 · 12:40F. Mandrysz2.00611139113P. Sturma1.73115111192LSep 19 · 11:10F. Mandrysz2.6381481262J. Jnr1.4411121110113LSep 19 · 09:40J. Sindler1.61111211113F. Mandrysz2.20614581LSep 10 · 09:10F. Mandrysz1.259770R. Zajac3.751111113WSep 10 · 08:10F. Mandrysz1.3061111113R. Zajac3.40118641WSep 10 · 06:40J. Matus1.61910120F. Mandrysz2.201112143WSep 10 · 06:10T. Slivka2.75115781F. Mandrysz1.4021111113WSep 9 · 08:50J. Sindler1.83311381F. Mandrysz1.8311511113LSep 9 · 08:15J. Matus1.80111198113F. Mandrysz1.9175111142LSep 9 · 07:15F. Mandrysz1.67112881A. Strelec2.1061111113
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