TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13156116
Played Sep 19Finished
Jaroslav Sindler
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1161214115118––
Filip Mandrysz
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:47 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Sindler to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJaroslav Sindler above · Filip Mandrysz below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 78 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Jaroslav Sindler at 55.8%
78 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Sindler 28–18 Filip Mandrysz Filip Mandrysz has won 18 of their 46 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:47What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Sindler
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
28-18 in 46
Sindler
Correct
gap of 10 in 46, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sindler 1496 vs Mandrysz 1352
Sindler
Correct
both rated, 144 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sindler 80% vs Mandrysz 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sindler 80% vs Mandrysz 50%
Sindler
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sindler +4 · Mandrysz -1
Sindler
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Sindler) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mandrysz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSindler 1.61 / Mandrysz 2.20
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Sindler)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13156116
Sindler1.61
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 132 of 245
Up 2–0, closes it90% 47 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it70% 85 of 122
Mandrysz2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 56 of 125
Down 0–1, comes back32% 25 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSindler7wins
AwayMandrysz3wins
8 of 10 to a deciderSindler leads 7–3, and 8 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSindler66.7%4 of 6
AwayMandrysz25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sindler6Mandrysz4n = 10Sindler took 6 of 10
S2Sindler5Mandrysz5n = 10split evenly
S3Sindler4Mandrysz6n = 10Mandrysz took 6 of 10
S4Sindler5Mandrysz4n = 9Sindler took 5 of 9
S5Sindler6Mandrysz2n = 8Sindler took 6 of 8
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home660%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSindlerMandryszS − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match43.842.3+1.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSindlerMandryszBasisWin rate · lifetime413 / 794 vs 220 / 43752%50.3%413 / 794 vs 220 / 437Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.137.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SindlerSindler 1.61/Mandrysz 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.9%
Sindler · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sindler won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 08:50J. Sindler25311381F. Mandrysz3811511113
WSep 9 · 05:45J. Sindler331111113F. Mandrysz172960
WSep 6 · 13:45J. Sindler45126115113F. Mandrysz48101191172
LSep 1 · 05:40J. Sindler47117101182F. Mandrysz51811129113
WAug 30 · 14:40J. Sindler53148119113F. Mandrysz45121161152
WAug 27 · 07:10J. Sindler50511914113F. Mandrysz47119111242
WAug 3 · 08:15J. Sindler50911811113F. Mandrysz4511711792
LAug 2 · 15:40J. Sindler4111811292F. Mandrysz45611611113
WJul 29 · 17:15J. Sindler49116813113F. Mandrysz43411111162
WJul 29 · 15:45J. Sindler45411811113F. Mandrysz4411511892
J. Sindler10
WSep 19 · 10:40J. Sindler1.731511133P. Sturma2.00137110WSep 17 · 09:15J. Sindler1.60511136113P. Chlad2.20119111192WSep 17 · 08:10J. Sindler1.7311125113J. Matus2.006101151WSep 17 · 06:40P. Jokiel1.838470J. Sindler1.831111113WSep 17 · 06:10P. Chlad2.006111061J. Sindler1.7311612113LSep 16 · 13:20J. Sindler1.7363100M. Lorenc2.001111123WSep 16 · 12:15J. Sindler1.53111248113L. Jr2.38610111172WSep 16 · 10:45M. Lorenc1.8361112101J. Sindler1.8311514123WSep 16 · 10:15L. Zustina2.25861191J. Sindler1.5711119113WSep 16 · 09:20J. Sindler1.36101111113R. Zajac3.00124971
F. Mandrysz10
LSep 19 · 11:10F. Mandrysz2.6381481262J. Jnr1.4411121110113LSep 10 · 09:10F. Mandrysz1.259770R. Zajac3.751111113WSep 10 · 08:10F. Mandrysz1.3061111113R. Zajac3.40118641WSep 10 · 06:40J. Matus1.61910120F. Mandrysz2.201112143WSep 10 · 06:10T. Slivka2.75115781F. Mandrysz1.4021111113WSep 9 · 08:50J. Sindler1.83311381F. Mandrysz1.8311511113LSep 9 · 08:15J. Matus1.80111198113F. Mandrysz1.9175111142LSep 9 · 07:15F. Mandrysz1.67112881A. Strelec2.1061111113LSep 9 · 05:45J. Sindler1.731111113F. Mandrysz2.002960LSep 7 · 08:44F. Mandrysz1.28910111192T. Slivka3.50111269113
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