TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13145306
Played Sep 17Finished
Jaroslav Sindler
Home
1.60
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
5111191311611119
Petr Chlad
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:43 and never touched — 63.8% is still 63.8%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Sindler to win
63.8%
63.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJaroslav Sindler above · Petr Chlad below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 97 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Jaroslav Sindler at 63.8%
97 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Sindler 11–4 Petr Chlad Petr Chlad has won 4 of their 15 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Sindler beat Chlad 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:43What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.60 (58%)
Sindler
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-4 in 15
Sindler
Correct
gap of 7 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sindler 1456 vs Chlad 1434
Sindler
Correct
both rated, 23 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sindler 80% vs Chlad 60%
Sindler
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sindler 80% vs Chlad 40%
Sindler
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sindler +3 · Chlad +2
Sindler
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Sindler) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chlad form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSindler 1.60 / Chlad 2.20
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Sindler)+2.4pp
TT Cup · #13145306
Sindler1.60
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite53% won 129 of 243
Up 2–0, closes it90% 46 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it69% 83 of 120
Chlad2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog36% won 25 of 70
Down 0–1, comes back33% 16 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back11% 3 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSindler7wins
AwayChlad3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSindler leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSindler75%6 of 8
AwayChladn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sindler8Chlad2n = 10Sindler took 8 of 10
S2Sindler6Chlad4n = 10Sindler took 6 of 10
S3Sindler3Chlad7n = 10Chlad took 7 of 10
S4Sindler5Chlad5n = 10split evenly
S5Sindler3Chlad1n = 4Sindler took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSindlerChladS − CBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match40.439.2+1.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSindlerChladBasisWin rate · lifetime412 / 793 vs 134 / 27752%48.4%412 / 793 vs 134 / 277Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.138.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SindlerSindler 1.60/Chlad 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.3%
Sindler · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Sindler won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 17 · 06:10J. Sindler4011612113P. Chlad336111061
LSep 2 · 07:40J. Sindler35117891P. Chlad3741111113
WAug 6 · 06:45J. Sindler3711411113P. Chlad31711491
WAug 5 · 06:45J. Sindler47911115113P. Chlad4811891192
WAug 3 · 06:45J. Sindler51111258153P. Chlad516101111132
WJul 24 · 16:48J. Sindler3511112113P. Chlad26641151
WJul 24 · 14:10J. Sindler4011117113P. Chlad30741181
WJul 14 · 14:40J. Sindler45111166113P. Chlad4387111162
LJul 11 · 14:10J. Sindler336116101P. Chlad4311911123
LJul 10 · 14:10J. Sindler4111671162P. Chlad50911118113
J. Sindler10
WSep 17 · 08:10J. Sindler1.7311125113J. Matus2.006101151WSep 17 · 06:40P. Jokiel1.838470J. Sindler1.831111113WSep 17 · 06:10P. Chlad2.006111061J. Sindler1.7311612113LSep 16 · 13:20J. Sindler1.7363100M. Lorenc2.001111123WSep 16 · 12:15J. Sindler1.53111248113L. Jr2.38610111172WSep 16 · 10:45M. Lorenc1.8361112101J. Sindler1.8311514123WSep 16 · 10:15L. Zustina2.25861191J. Sindler1.5711119113WSep 16 · 09:20J. Sindler1.36101111113R. Zajac3.00124971LSep 16 · 07:45L. Zustina2.2511117113J. Sindler1.57791171WSep 16 · 07:15R. Zajac2.631147121J. Sindler1.4491111143
P. Chlad10
WSep 17 · 07:40P. Jokiel2.2581111662P. Chlad1.57118811113WSep 17 · 07:10J. Matus2.25451181P. Chlad1.5711115113LSep 17 · 06:10P. Chlad2.006111061J. Sindler1.7311612113LSep 15 · 16:40P. Chlad1.57851111102R. Benesz2.25111166123WSep 15 · 16:10P. Chlad1.6791111113R. Benesz2.10116891LSep 15 · 14:40M. Lorenc1.8091111113P. Chlad1.91117391LSep 15 · 14:10T. Ogrocki2.20111111113P. Chlad1.61813681LSep 4 · 20:45P. Chlad1.8056120V. Molin1.911111143LSep 4 · 20:10K. Przeczek1.80116611113P. Chlad1.9161111762WSep 4 · 19:10P. Chlad1.911411144113V. Molin1.80165121192
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