TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Martin Sobota
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1210611811711––
Jiri Matus
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:44 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Sobota to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Sobota above · Jiri Matus below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 76 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Martin Sobota at 54.0%
76 points played in total.
H2H Martin Sobota 1–1 Jiri Matus Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:44What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Sobota
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Sobota 1305 vs Matus 1361
Matus
Correct
both rated, 56 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sobota 20% vs Matus 40%
Matus
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sobota 40% vs Matus 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sobota +1 · Matus -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Matus) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Matus form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSobota 1.80 / Matus 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Matus)+5.5pp
TT Cup · #13161286
Sobota1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite27% won 7 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it50% 6 of 12
Matus1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 24 of 52
Down 0–1, comes back28% 7 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back15% 2 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeSobota1wins
AwayMatus1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricSobotaMatusS − MBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match36.538.5−2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSobotaMatusBasisWin rate · lifetime77 / 176 vs 224 / 43343.8%51.7%77 / 176 vs 224 / 433Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.039.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MatusSobota 1.80/Matus 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Matus · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Matus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 20 · 07:15M. Sobota33126871J. Matus43101111113
WAug 23 · 15:14M. Sobota4011117113J. Matus34971171
M. Sobota10
WSep 20 · 08:15F. Mandrysz1.735880M. Sobota2.001111113WSep 20 · 05:45J. Sindler1.5781151192M. Sobota2.25118118113LSep 12 · 16:45P. Chvojka1.301114113M. Sobota3.4061290LSep 12 · 16:15M. Sobota2.3822140P. Chvojka1.531111163LSep 12 · 14:45J. Jnr1.83611911113M. Sobota1.8311711362LSep 12 · 14:15P. Sturma1.731111113M. Sobota2.009860WSep 6 · 17:18J. Sindler1.67711791M. Sobota2.1011911113LSep 6 · 15:45J. Sindler1.6713101115113M. Sobota2.10151291372WSep 6 · 15:15F. Mandrysz1.83511911142M. Sobota1.83118118163WSep 6 · 14:15M. Sobota2.50111110113R. Jancak1.50761261
J. Matus10
LSep 20 · 07:45J. Sindler1.7311414133J. Matus2.0061112111LSep 20 · 06:15J. Matus1.731611911142F. Mandrysz2.001413115163WSep 17 · 08:45J. Matus1.8011811113P. Jokiel1.91411761LSep 17 · 08:10J. Sindler1.7311125113J. Matus2.006101151LSep 17 · 07:10J. Matus2.25451181P. Chlad1.5711115113WSep 17 · 05:40P. Jokiel1.5771350J. Matus2.251115113WSep 15 · 08:43J. Matus1.3311611113L. Snr3.25911821WSep 15 · 08:10L. Snr2.25611971J. Matus1.5711911113LSep 15 · 07:10J. Matus1.833411101A. Strelec1.8311119123LSep 15 · 05:40I. Jemelka1.531181413113J. Matus2.38811121592
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