TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Jiri Matus
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
161411139111151416
Filip Mandrysz
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:16 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeJiri Matus to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJiri Matus above · Filip Mandrysz below
Set 1 · 16-14
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 14-16
Point 120 set 5, 14-16 — our read held Jiri Matus at 54.1%
120 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Matus 17–17 Filip Mandrysz Dead even across their 34 meetings.
Last 10 · 2–8Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:16What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Matus
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-17 in 34
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Matus 1369 vs Mandrysz 1350
Matus
Wrong
both rated, 19 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Matus 60% vs Mandrysz 40%
Matus
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Matus 50% vs Mandrysz 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Matus +1 · Mandrysz +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Matus)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMatus 1.73 / Mandrysz 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Matus)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13161229
Matus1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 17)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 89 of 149
Up 2–0, closes it93% 38 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it76% 62 of 82
Mandrysz2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog45% won 57 of 128
Down 0–1, comes back32% 26 of 81
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMatus2wins
AwayMandrysz8wins
7 of 10 to a deciderMandrysz leads 8–2, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMatus20%1 of 5
AwayMandrysz80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Matus5Mandrysz5n = 10split evenly
S2Matus3Mandrysz7n = 10Mandrysz took 7 of 10
S3Matus3Mandrysz7n = 10Mandrysz took 7 of 10
S4Matus4Mandrysz4n = 8split evenly
S5Matus2Mandrysz5n = 7Mandrysz took 5 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMatusMandryszMatus − MandryszBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.345.1−3.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMatusMandryszBasisWin rate · lifetime224 / 432 vs 223 / 44351.9%50.3%224 / 432 vs 223 / 443Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.137.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MatusMatus 1.73/Mandrysz 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Matus · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Mandrysz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 20 · 06:15J. Matus611611911142F. Mandrysz591413115163
LSep 10 · 06:40J. Matus31910120F. Mandrysz371112143
WSep 9 · 08:15J. Matus50111198113F. Mandrysz3875111142
LAug 2 · 17:10J. Matus4011551182F. Mandrysz39311113113
LAug 2 · 14:10J. Matus3811651152F. Mandrysz44511116113
LAug 1 · 12:15J. Matus168620F. Mandrysz331111113
LJul 26 · 16:15J. Matus3511211382F. Mandrysz51911911113
WJul 7 · 13:20J. Matus46581111113F. Mandrysz4511117882
LJul 7 · 11:45J. Matus591111131682F. Mandrysz601371118113
LJul 6 · 08:50J. Matus37614891F. Mandrysz45111211113
J. Matus10
LSep 20 · 07:45J. Sindler1.7311414133J. Matus2.0061112111WSep 20 · 07:15M. Sobota1.80126871J. Matus1.91101111113WSep 17 · 08:45J. Matus1.8011811113P. Jokiel1.91411761LSep 17 · 08:10J. Sindler1.7311125113J. Matus2.006101151LSep 17 · 07:10J. Matus2.25451181P. Chlad1.5711115113WSep 17 · 05:40P. Jokiel1.5771350J. Matus2.251115113WSep 15 · 08:43J. Matus1.3311611113L. Snr3.25911821WSep 15 · 08:10L. Snr2.25611971J. Matus1.5711911113LSep 15 · 07:10J. Matus1.833411101A. Strelec1.8311119123LSep 15 · 05:40I. Jemelka1.531181413113J. Matus2.38811121592
F. Mandrysz10
LSep 20 · 06:45J. Sindler1.6111116123F. Mandrysz2.209811101WSep 19 · 12:40F. Mandrysz2.00611139113P. Sturma1.73115111192WSep 19 · 12:10P. Sturma1.91119691F. Mandrysz1.8091111113LSep 19 · 11:10F. Mandrysz2.6381481262J. Jnr1.4411121110113LSep 19 · 09:40J. Sindler1.61111211113F. Mandrysz2.20614581LSep 10 · 09:10F. Mandrysz1.259770R. Zajac3.751111113WSep 10 · 08:10F. Mandrysz1.3061111113R. Zajac3.40118641WSep 10 · 06:40J. Matus1.61910120F. Mandrysz2.201112143WSep 10 · 06:10T. Slivka2.75115781F. Mandrysz1.4021111113WSep 9 · 08:50J. Sindler1.83311381F. Mandrysz1.8311511113
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