TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13121083
Played Sep 12Finished
Peter Chvojka
Home
1.30
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1161412119––––
Martin Sobota
Away
3.40
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
How it is goingPeter Chvojka above · Martin Sobota below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 63 set 3, 11-9
63 points played in total.
H2H Peter Chvojka 2–0 Martin Sobota Martin Sobota has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Chvojka beat Sobota 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Chvojka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chvojka form (60%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChvojka 1.30 / Sobota 3.40
Signal prob.72% / 28%
Edge (Chvojka)-0.0pp
TT Cup · #13121083
Chvojka1.30
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite48% won 37 of 77
Up 2–0, closes it96% 21 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it76% 31 of 41
Sobota3.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog50% won 41 of 82
Down 0–1, comes back23% 8 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeChvojka2wins
AwaySobota0wins
Chvojka leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home2
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricChvojkaSobotaC − SBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match37.021.0+16.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChvojkaSobotaBasisWin rate · lifetime136 / 300 vs 75 / 17345.3%43.4%136 / 300 vs 75 / 173Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.440.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChvojkaChvojka 1.30/Sobota 3.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.3%
Chvojka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Chvojka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 12 · 16:15P. Chvojka381111163M. Sobota1822140
WAug 11 · 14:45P. Chvojka361411113M. Sobota2412660
P. Chvojka10
WSep 12 · 16:15M. Sobota2.3822140P. Chvojka1.531111163LSep 12 · 15:15P. Chvojka1.73811991P. Sturma2.0011611113LSep 12 · 13:45J. Jnr1.831111113P. Chvojka1.838680WSep 7 · 12:44P. Chvojka1.4411811113T. Slivka2.63511341WSep 7 · 12:15T. Slivka2.208870P. Chvojka1.611111113LSep 7 · 11:15P. Chvojka1.67812881L. Jr2.10111011113LSep 7 · 09:45O. Vaclahovsky1.80118119133P. Chvojka1.91411811112LSep 4 · 12:50M. Lorenc1.57812114113P. Chvojka2.25111081192LSep 4 · 12:15O. Vaclahovsky1.80111192113P. Chvojka1.9179111192LSep 4 · 11:15P. Chvojka2.00711991J. Sevecek1.7311611113
M. Sobota10
LSep 12 · 16:15M. Sobota2.3822140P. Chvojka1.531111163LSep 12 · 14:45J. Jnr1.83611911113M. Sobota1.8311711362LSep 12 · 14:15P. Sturma1.731111113M. Sobota2.009860WSep 6 · 17:18J. Sindler1.67711791M. Sobota2.1011911113LSep 6 · 15:45J. Sindler1.6713101115113M. Sobota2.10151291372WSep 6 · 15:15F. Mandrysz1.83511911142M. Sobota1.83118118163WSep 6 · 14:15M. Sobota2.50111110113R. Jancak1.50761261LSep 5 · 08:40M. Sobota1.80811111042L. Stempak1.91119712113LSep 5 · 07:40L. Jr1.83113911133M. Sobota1.83211117112WSep 5 · 07:10L. Stempak1.8093121152M. Sobota1.911111107113
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