TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13155183
Played Sep 19Finished
Denis Aldayev
Home
3.40
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
111321111912101311
Oleksandr Kolos
Away
1.30
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:17 and never touched — 76.7% is still 76.7%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Kolos to win
76.7%
76.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDenis Aldayev above · Oleksandr Kolos below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 103 set 5, 13-11 — our read held Oleksandr Kolos at 76.7%
103 points played in total.
H2H Denis Aldayev 12–26 Oleksandr Kolos Denis Aldayev has won 12 of their 38 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:17What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Kolos
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-26 in 38
Kolos
Wrong
gap of 14 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Aldayev 943 vs Kolos 1158
Kolos
Wrong
both rated, 215 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Aldayev 60% vs Kolos 40%
Aldayev
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Aldayev 70% vs Kolos 50%
Aldayev
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Aldayev +2 · Kolos +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Kolos)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolos form (40%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAldayev 3.40 / Kolos 1.30
Signal prob.23% / 77%
Edge (Kolos)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13155183
Aldayev3.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog22% won 11 of 49
Down 0–1, comes back12% 4 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 22
Kolos1.30
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite75% won 47 of 63
Up 2–0, closes it96% 23 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it88% 35 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAldayev3wins
AwayKolos7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKolos leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAldayev60%3 of 5
AwayKolos100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Aldayev5Kolos5n = 10split evenly
S2Aldayev3Kolos7n = 10Kolos took 7 of 10
S3Aldayev4Kolos6n = 10Kolos took 6 of 10
S4Aldayev1Kolos3n = 4Kolos took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricAldayevKolosA − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match30.632.8−2.2per matchSweeps24−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAldayevKolosBasisWin rate · lifetime98 / 232 vs 152 / 29042.2%52.4%98 / 232 vs 152 / 290Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.636.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolosAldayev 3.40/Kolos 1.30
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
76.7%
Kolos · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Aldayev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 24 · 15:00D. Aldayev4413711762O. Kolos481111411113
LAug 15 · 11:00D. Aldayev3910111081O. Kolos3812312113
LJul 11 · 06:30D. Aldayev209650O. Kolos331111113
LJul 6 · 17:28D. Aldayev259880O. Kolos331111113
LJul 6 · 15:30D. Aldayev196580O. Kolos331111113
WJul 4 · 08:00D. Aldayev331111113O. Kolos165380
LJul 1 · 14:30D. Aldayev361110961O. Kolos4171211113
LJun 27 · 08:30D. Aldayev186480O. Kolos331111113
WApr 25 · 11:30D. Aldayev331111113O. Kolos206770
WApr 18 · 11:30D. Aldayev3911611113O. Kolos33811771
D. Aldayev10
WSep 19 · 10:30D. Aldayev2.38119711113Y. Priadko1.5391111662WSep 19 · 07:30D. Aldayev5.50591113113R. Boklah1.13111131162WSep 19 · 06:00D. Aldayev2.1011311113V. Klymenko1.67611211LSep 19 · 04:30D. Aldayev1.67117581V. Ivnytskyi2.1081111113WSep 14 · 17:19D. Aldayev1.91711711113Y. Priadko1.8011911942LSep 14 · 15:30Y. Priadko1.5711115113D. Aldayev2.25641161WSep 14 · 14:30D. Aldayev1.4081111113M. Bukata2.75118891LSep 14 · 13:30V. Klymenko1.67111116113D. Aldayev2.107131441WSep 14 · 12:30D. Aldayev2.001111113V. Ivnytskyi1.734530WSep 7 · 16:59D. Aldayev4.0012118113Y. Priadko1.221091191
O. Kolos10
WSep 19 · 11:00O. Kolos1.251111113V. Ivnytskyi3.758670WSep 19 · 08:00O. Kolos1.401112113V. Klymenko2.7561050WSep 19 · 07:00Y. Priadko1.8311911972O. Kolos1.83911611113LSep 19 · 05:30O. Kolos2.6311913972R. Boklah1.448111111113LSep 12 · 11:00O. Kolos3.5011550I. Torhachov1.281311113LSep 12 · 09:00A. Fastov1.83591112113O. Kolos1.83111171092LSep 12 · 08:00O. Kolos2.6311511882R. Boklah1.44911511113LSep 12 · 07:00S. Priadko1.141111113O. Kolos5.009970WSep 12 · 05:30O. Kolos2.63111186113I. Serdiuk1.4488111142WSep 5 · 11:30I. Serdiuk1.2588100O. Kolos3.751111123
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