TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13154982
Played Sep 19Finished
Denis Aldayev
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119911711116116
Yurii Priadko
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:24 and never touched — 63.7% is still 63.7%
Graded at full timeYurii Priadko to win
63.7%
63.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDenis Aldayev above · Yurii Priadko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 92 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Yurii Priadko at 63.7%
92 points played in total.
H2H Denis Aldayev 20–17 Yurii Priadko Yurii Priadko has won 17 of their 37 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:24What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Priadko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-17 in 37
Aldayev
Correct
gap of 3 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Aldayev 960 vs Priadko 964
Priadko
Wrong
both rated, 4 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Aldayev 80% vs Priadko 0%
Aldayev
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Aldayev 70% vs Priadko 20%
Aldayev
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Aldayev +3 · Priadko -6
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Priadko) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Priadko form (0%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAldayev 2.38 / Priadko 1.53
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Priadko)-2.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13154982
Aldayev2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog22% won 11 of 49
Down 0–1, comes back12% 4 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 22
Priadko1.53
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 45 of 69
Up 2–0, closes it100% 25 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it82% 32 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAldayev3wins
AwayPriadko7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPriadko leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAldayev66.7%2 of 3
AwayPriadko85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Aldayev3Priadko7n = 10Priadko took 7 of 10
S2Aldayev3Priadko7n = 10Priadko took 7 of 10
S3Aldayev2Priadko8n = 10Priadko took 8 of 10
S4Aldayev3Priadko1n = 4Aldayev took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricAldayevPriadkoA − PBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match28.635.8−7.2per matchSweeps15−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAldayevPriadkoBasisWin rate · lifetime99 / 233 vs 113 / 24142.5%46.9%99 / 233 vs 113 / 241Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.636.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PriadkoAldayev 2.38/Priadko 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.4%
Priadko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Aldayev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 14 · 17:19D. Aldayev47711711113Y. Priadko4411911942
LSep 14 · 15:30D. Aldayev27641161Y. Priadko3811115113
WSep 7 · 16:59D. Aldayev4212118113Y. Priadko391091191
LSep 7 · 14:00D. Aldayev186570Y. Priadko331111113
LAug 31 · 15:30D. Aldayev163760Y. Priadko331111113
LAug 24 · 14:00D. Aldayev2411760Y. Priadko351311113
LAug 17 · 13:00D. Aldayev4411761192Y. Priadko47511119113
LAug 15 · 06:30D. Aldayev165470Y. Priadko331111113
LJul 18 · 07:00D. Aldayev199550Y. Priadko331111113
WJul 13 · 14:00D. Aldayev331111113Y. Priadko238780
D. Aldayev10
WSep 19 · 09:00D. Aldayev3.401121112133O. Kolos1.301311910112WSep 19 · 07:30D. Aldayev5.50591113113R. Boklah1.13111131162WSep 19 · 06:00D. Aldayev2.1011311113V. Klymenko1.67611211LSep 19 · 04:30D. Aldayev1.67117581V. Ivnytskyi2.1081111113WSep 14 · 17:19D. Aldayev1.91711711113Y. Priadko1.8011911942LSep 14 · 15:30Y. Priadko1.5711115113D. Aldayev2.25641161WSep 14 · 14:30D. Aldayev1.4081111113M. Bukata2.75118891LSep 14 · 13:30V. Klymenko1.67111116113D. Aldayev2.107131441WSep 14 · 12:30D. Aldayev2.001111113V. Ivnytskyi1.734530WSep 7 · 16:59D. Aldayev4.0012118113Y. Priadko1.221091191
Y. Priadko10
LSep 19 · 09:30Y. Priadko2.20641151R. Boklah1.6111115113LSep 19 · 08:30Y. Priadko1.735760V. Ivnytskyi2.001111113LSep 19 · 07:00Y. Priadko1.8311911972O. Kolos1.83911611113LSep 19 · 05:00Y. Priadko1.50118781V. Klymenko2.5071111113LSep 14 · 17:19D. Aldayev1.91711711113Y. Priadko1.8011911942LSep 14 · 16:30Y. Priadko1.36511631V. Klymenko3.0011411113WSep 14 · 15:30Y. Priadko1.5711115113D. Aldayev2.25641161LSep 14 · 14:00Y. Priadko1.5081160V. Ivnytskyi2.501113113WSep 14 · 13:00Y. Priadko1.08118118113M. Bukata7.0031151172LSep 7 · 16:59D. Aldayev4.0012118113Y. Priadko1.221091191
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