TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13155179
Played Sep 19Finished
Denis Aldayev
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
118711511811––
Volodymyr Ivnytskyi
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:19 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDenis Aldayev to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDenis Aldayev above · Volodymyr Ivnytskyi below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 72 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Denis Aldayev at 54.0%
72 points played in total.
H2H Denis Aldayev 4–6 Volodymyr Ivnytskyi Denis Aldayev has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:19What took a side1 for · 5 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Aldayev
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-6 in 10
Ivnytskyi
Correct
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Aldayev 921 vs Ivnytskyi 1005
Ivnytskyi
Correct
both rated, 84 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Aldayev 60% vs Ivnytskyi 80%
Ivnytskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Aldayev 50% vs Ivnytskyi 90%
Ivnytskyi
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Aldayev +1 · Ivnytskyi +4
Ivnytskyi
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Aldayev)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ivnytskyi form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAldayev 1.67 / Ivnytskyi 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Aldayev)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13155179
Aldayev1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite57% won 25 of 44
Up 2–0, closes it88% 14 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it85% 17 of 20
Ivnytskyi2.10
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog35% won 24 of 68
Down 0–1, comes back13% 5 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAldayev4wins
AwayIvnytskyi6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderIvnytskyi leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAldayev60%3 of 5
AwayIvnytskyi80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Aldayev5Ivnytskyi5n = 10split evenly
S2Aldayev5Ivnytskyi5n = 10split evenly
S3Aldayev7Ivnytskyi3n = 10Aldayev took 7 of 10
S4Aldayev2Ivnytskyi4n = 6Ivnytskyi took 4 of 6
S5Aldayev1Ivnytskyi3n = 4Ivnytskyi took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricAldayevIvnytskyiA − IBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.736.6+2.1per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAldayevIvnytskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime97 / 233 vs 33 / 9541.6%34.7%97 / 233 vs 33 / 95Avg sets wonper match1.81.6per matchAvg pointsper match35.635.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AldayevAldayev 1.67/Ivnytskyi 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Aldayev · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Ivnytskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 14 · 12:30D. Aldayev331111113V. Ivnytskyi124530
LSep 7 · 12:30D. Aldayev32911841V. Ivnytskyi4011711113
LAug 31 · 12:30D. Aldayev5112991292V. Ivnytskyi5310111110113
LAug 17 · 16:00D. Aldayev208840V. Ivnytskyi331111113
LJul 18 · 08:30D. Aldayev356151131V. Ivnytskyi4111172113
WJul 6 · 16:30D. Aldayev331111113V. Ivnytskyi157440
WApr 18 · 10:00D. Aldayev46711115123V. Ivnytskyi45117611102
LMar 20 · 13:30D. Aldayev521111118112V. Ivnytskyi55913911133
LFeb 14 · 08:30D. Aldayev5299111762V. Ivnytskyi531111515113
WJan 24 · 11:30D. Aldayev331111113V. Ivnytskyi195950
D. Aldayev10
WSep 19 · 06:00D. Aldayev2.1011311113V. Klymenko1.67611211WSep 14 · 17:19D. Aldayev1.91711711113Y. Priadko1.8011911942LSep 14 · 15:30Y. Priadko1.5711115113D. Aldayev2.25641161WSep 14 · 14:30D. Aldayev1.4081111113M. Bukata2.75118891LSep 14 · 13:30V. Klymenko1.67111116113D. Aldayev2.107131441WSep 14 · 12:30D. Aldayev2.001111113V. Ivnytskyi1.734530WSep 7 · 16:59D. Aldayev4.0012118113Y. Priadko1.221091191WSep 7 · 16:00D. Aldayev1.3012111311123M. Bukata3.40148158102LSep 7 · 15:00V. Klymenko1.911111113D. Aldayev1.809460LSep 7 · 14:00Y. Priadko1.281111113D. Aldayev3.506570
V. Ivnytskyi10
WSep 14 · 17:38V. Ivnytskyi2.0012114113V. Klymenko1.731061161WSep 14 · 16:00V. Ivnytskyi1.3671111113M. Bukata3.00117471WSep 14 · 15:00V. Klymenko1.537630V. Ivnytskyi2.381111113WSep 14 · 14:00Y. Priadko1.5081160V. Ivnytskyi2.501113113LSep 14 · 12:30D. Aldayev2.001111113V. Ivnytskyi1.734530WSep 7 · 17:29V. Ivnytskyi2.751213711113V. Klymenko1.40141111682WSep 7 · 15:30Y. Priadko1.401081171V. Ivnytskyi2.7512119113WSep 7 · 14:30V. Ivnytskyi1.361110511113M. Bukata3.0061211662WSep 7 · 12:30V. Ivnytskyi2.2011711113D. Aldayev1.61911841WAug 31 · 17:34V. Ivnytskyi3.00111146113Y. Priadko1.3668111182
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