TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13089200
Played Sep 7Finished
Volodymyr Ivnytskyi
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119711118114––
Denis Aldayev
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:22 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDenis Aldayev to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVolodymyr Ivnytskyi above · Denis Aldayev below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 72 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Denis Aldayev at 54.0%
72 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Ivnytskyi 5–3 Denis Aldayev Denis Aldayev has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:22What took a side1 for · 5 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Aldayev
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Ivnytskyi
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ivnytskyi 935 vs Aldayev 929
Ivnytskyi
Correct
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ivnytskyi 80% vs Aldayev 40%
Ivnytskyi
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ivnytskyi 60% vs Aldayev 40%
Ivnytskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ivnytskyi +3 · Aldayev +1
Ivnytskyi
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Aldayev) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Aldayev form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsIvnytskyi 2.20 / Aldayev 1.61
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Aldayev)-0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13089200
Ivnytskyi2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog30% won 20 of 66
Down 0–1, comes back13% 5 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 25
Aldayev1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 27 of 47
Up 2–0, closes it89% 16 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it83% 20 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeIvnytskyi5wins
AwayAldayev3wins
4 of 8 to a deciderIvnytskyi leads 5–3, and 4 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeIvnytskyi75%3 of 4
AwayAldayev50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ivnytskyi4Aldayev4n = 8split evenly
S2Ivnytskyi5Aldayev3n = 8Ivnytskyi took 5 of 8
S3Ivnytskyi2Aldayev6n = 8Aldayev took 6 of 8
S4Ivnytskyi3Aldayev2n = 5Ivnytskyi took 3 of 5
S5Ivnytskyi3Aldayev1n = 4Ivnytskyi took 3 of 4
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home338%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away225%
These 8 meetings
MetricIvnytskyiAldayevI − ABasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match39.240.2−1.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricIvnytskyiAldayevBasisWin rate · lifetime25 / 86 vs 93 / 22829.1%40.8%25 / 86 vs 93 / 228Avg sets wonper match1.51.8per matchAvg pointsper match34.735.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AldayevIvnytskyi 2.20/Aldayev 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.3%
Aldayev · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Ivnytskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WAug 31 · 12:30V. Ivnytskyi—10111110113D. Aldayev—12991292
WAug 17 · 16:00V. Ivnytskyi—1111113D. Aldayev—8840
WJul 18 · 08:30V. Ivnytskyi—11172113D. Aldayev—6151131
LJul 6 · 16:30V. Ivnytskyi—7440D. Aldayev—1111113
LApr 18 · 10:00V. Ivnytskyi—117611102D. Aldayev—711115123
WMar 20 · 13:30V. Ivnytskyi—913911133D. Aldayev—1111118112
WFeb 14 · 08:30V. Ivnytskyi—1111515113D. Aldayev—99111762
LJan 24 · 11:30V. Ivnytskyi—5950D. Aldayev—1111113
V. Ivnytskyi10
WAug 31 · 17:34V. Ivnytskyi3.00111146113Y. Priadko1.3668111182WAug 31 · 16:00V. Ivnytskyi1.5013611113M. Bukata2.501111891WAug 31 · 15:00V. Klymenko1.369840V. Ivnytskyi3.001111113LAug 31 · 14:00Y. Priadko1.308121111113V. Ivnytskyi3.40111013772WAug 31 · 12:30D. Aldayev1.6712991292V. Ivnytskyi2.1010111110113LAug 17 · 17:18V. Ivnytskyi2.75117110V. Klymenko1.401311133WAug 17 · 16:00V. Ivnytskyi2.751111113D. Aldayev1.408840LAug 17 · 15:00V. Klymenko1.368111110113V. Ivnytskyi3.0011891252WAug 17 · 14:00Y. Priadko1.17118121292V. Ivnytskyi4.507111410113LAug 17 · 12:30M. Bukata3.7511811123V. Ivnytskyi1.257118101
D. Aldayev10
LSep 7 · 14:00Y. Priadko1.281111113D. Aldayev3.506570WAug 31 · 17:03D. Aldayev1.9111119113V. Klymenko1.80821191LAug 31 · 15:30Y. Priadko1.401111113D. Aldayev2.753760LAug 31 · 14:30D. Aldayev1.25310111282M. Bukata3.751112510113WAug 31 · 13:30V. Klymenko1.57141080D. Aldayev2.251612113LAug 31 · 12:30D. Aldayev1.6712991292V. Ivnytskyi2.1010111110113WAug 24 · 17:13D. Aldayev1.401211113M. Bukata2.7510920WAug 24 · 16:00D. Aldayev1.2012116113V. Laskavyi4.331091151LAug 24 · 15:00O. Kolos1.251111411113D. Aldayev3.7513711762LAug 17 · 16:00V. Ivnytskyi2.751111113D. Aldayev1.408840
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