TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13049350
Played Aug 31Finished
Denis Aldayev
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
12109119111210911
Volodymyr Ivnytskyi
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:46 and never touched — 55.4% is still 55.4%
Graded at full timeDenis Aldayev to win
55.4%
55.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDenis Aldayev above · Volodymyr Ivnytskyi below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 104 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Denis Aldayev at 55.4%
104 points played in total.
H2H Denis Aldayev 3–4 Volodymyr Ivnytskyi Denis Aldayev has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:46What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Aldayev
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Aldayev 906 vs Ivnytskyi 880
Aldayev
Wrong
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Aldayev 40% vs Ivnytskyi 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Aldayev 20% vs Ivnytskyi 40%
Ivnytskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Aldayev +2 · Ivnytskyi -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Aldayev)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Aldayev form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAldayev 1.67 / Ivnytskyi 2.10
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Aldayev)-0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13049350
Aldayev1.67
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 27 of 45
Up 2–0, closes it89% 16 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it87% 20 of 23
Ivnytskyi2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog26% won 17 of 66
Down 0–1, comes back10% 4 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeAldayev3wins
AwayIvnytskyi4wins
3 of 7 to a deciderIvnytskyi leads 4–3, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAldayev66.7%2 of 3
AwayIvnytskyi75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Aldayev3Ivnytskyi4n = 7Ivnytskyi took 4 of 7
S2Aldayev3Ivnytskyi4n = 7Ivnytskyi took 4 of 7
S3Aldayev6Ivnytskyi1n = 7Aldayev took 6 of 7
S4Aldayev1Ivnytskyi3n = 4Ivnytskyi took 3 of 4
S5Aldayev1Ivnytskyi2n = 3Ivnytskyi took 2 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home229%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricAldayevIvnytskyiA − IBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match38.737.3+1.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAldayevIvnytskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime91 / 223 vs 21 / 8140.8%25.9%91 / 223 vs 21 / 81Avg sets wonper match1.71.4per matchAvg pointsper match35.534.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AldayevAldayev 1.67/Ivnytskyi 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.4%
Aldayev · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Ivnytskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LAug 17 · 16:00D. Aldayev—8840V. Ivnytskyi—1111113
LJul 18 · 08:30D. Aldayev—6151131V. Ivnytskyi—11172113
WJul 6 · 16:30D. Aldayev—1111113V. Ivnytskyi—7440
WApr 18 · 10:00D. Aldayev—711115123V. Ivnytskyi—117611102
LMar 20 · 13:30D. Aldayev—1111118112V. Ivnytskyi—913911133
LFeb 14 · 08:30D. Aldayev—99111762V. Ivnytskyi—1111515113
WJan 24 · 11:30D. Aldayev—1111113V. Ivnytskyi—5950
D. Aldayev10
WAug 31 · 17:03D. Aldayev1.9111119113V. Klymenko1.80821191LAug 31 · 15:30Y. Priadko1.401111113D. Aldayev2.753760LAug 31 · 14:30D. Aldayev1.25310111282M. Bukata3.751112510113WAug 31 · 13:30V. Klymenko1.57141080D. Aldayev2.251612113WAug 24 · 17:13D. Aldayev1.401211113M. Bukata2.7510920WAug 24 · 16:00D. Aldayev1.2012116113V. Laskavyi4.331091151LAug 24 · 15:00O. Kolos1.251111411113D. Aldayev3.7513711762LAug 24 · 14:00Y. Priadko1.501311113D. Aldayev2.5011760LAug 24 · 12:30M. Bukata3.25115114113D. Aldayev1.3371131192LAug 17 · 16:00V. Ivnytskyi2.751111113D. Aldayev1.408840
V. Ivnytskyi10
WAug 31 · 17:34V. Ivnytskyi3.00111146113Y. Priadko1.3668111182WAug 31 · 16:00V. Ivnytskyi1.5013611113M. Bukata2.501111891WAug 31 · 15:00V. Klymenko1.369840V. Ivnytskyi3.001111113LAug 31 · 14:00Y. Priadko1.308121111113V. Ivnytskyi3.40111013772LAug 17 · 17:18V. Ivnytskyi2.75117110V. Klymenko1.401311133WAug 17 · 16:00V. Ivnytskyi2.751111113D. Aldayev1.408840LAug 17 · 15:00V. Klymenko1.368111110113V. Ivnytskyi3.0011891252WAug 17 · 14:00Y. Priadko1.17118121292V. Ivnytskyi4.507111410113LAug 17 · 12:30M. Bukata3.7511811123V. Ivnytskyi1.257118101LAug 10 · 17:13O. Kolos1.2091211113V. Ivnytskyi4.331110741
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