TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12482510
Played Aug 24Finished
Oleksandr Kolos
Home
1.25
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1113117411117116
Denis Aldayev
Away
3.75
At publish
Lost last 10Form at publish
0–10Last 10Lost last 10
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:31 and never touched — 76.1% is still 76.1%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Kolos to win
76.1%
76.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Kolos above · Denis Aldayev below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 92 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Oleksandr Kolos at 76.1%
92 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Kolos 25–12 Denis Aldayev Denis Aldayev has won 12 of their 37 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:31What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Kolos
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
25-12 in 37
Kolos
Correct
gap of 13 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolos 1196 vs Aldayev 883
Kolos
Correct
both rated, 313 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolos 80% vs Aldayev 0%
Kolos
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolos 80% vs Aldayev 0%
Kolos
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolos +4 · Aldayev -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% — Strong (leans Kolos) · live re-read · sealed at 76% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Aldayev form (0%) is below what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolos 1.25 / Aldayev 3.75
Signal prob.78% / 22%
Edge (Kolos)+3.0pp
Setka Cup · #12482510
Kolos1.25
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite71% won 45 of 63
Up 2–0, closes it96% 21 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it87% 34 of 39
Aldayev3.75
0%won 0 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 10
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog22% won 12 of 55
Down 0–1, comes back9% 3 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolos7wins
AwayAldayev3wins
Kolos leads 7–3.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolos100%5 of 5
AwayAldayev60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolos5Aldayev5n = 10split evenly
S2Kolos7Aldayev3n = 10Kolos took 7 of 10
S3Kolos7Aldayev3n = 10Kolos took 7 of 10
S4Kolos3Aldayev1n = 4Kolos took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolosAldayevK − ABasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match31.729.0+2.7per matchSweeps42+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolosAldayevBasisWin rate · lifetime158 / 305 vs 90 / 22551.8%40%158 / 305 vs 90 / 225Avg sets wonper match2.01.7per matchAvg pointsper match36.535.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolosKolos 1.25/Aldayev 3.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
78%
Kolos · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kolos won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 15 · 11:00O. Kolos—12312113D. Aldayev—10111081
WJul 11 · 06:30O. Kolos—1111113D. Aldayev—9650
WJul 6 · 17:28O. Kolos—1111113D. Aldayev—9880
WJul 6 · 15:30O. Kolos—1111113D. Aldayev—6580
LJul 4 · 08:00O. Kolos—5380D. Aldayev—1111113
WJul 1 · 14:30O. Kolos—71211113D. Aldayev—1110961
WJun 27 · 08:30O. Kolos—1111113D. Aldayev—6480
LApr 25 · 11:30O. Kolos—6770D. Aldayev—1111113
LApr 18 · 11:30O. Kolos—811771D. Aldayev—11611113
WMar 25 · 18:34O. Kolos—41111113D. Aldayev—116921
O. Kolos10
WSep 5 · 11:30I. Serdiuk1.2588100O. Kolos3.751111123WSep 5 · 10:00O. Kolos3.00121399113R. Boklah1.361011111132WSep 5 · 08:00A. Fastov1.73931211102O. Kolos2.001111103123LSep 5 · 06:00Y. Priadko1.8014711133O. Kolos1.9112116111WSep 5 · 05:00V. Ananiev2.101111121262O. Kolos1.675131014113LAug 29 · 11:30O. Kolos4.503590S. Priadko1.171111113WAug 29 · 09:30A. Fastov1.8011237782O. Kolos1.919211111113LAug 29 · 07:30R. Boklah1.3611611113O. Kolos3.00811771LAug 29 · 06:30O. Kolos4.0013151081I. Torhachov1.22151312113LAug 29 · 05:30I. Serdiuk1.301111113O. Kolos3.405950
D. Aldayev10
WAug 31 · 17:03D. Aldayev1.9111119113V. Klymenko1.80821191LAug 31 · 15:30Y. Priadko1.401111113D. Aldayev2.753760LAug 31 · 14:30D. Aldayev1.25310111282M. Bukata3.751112510113WAug 31 · 13:30V. Klymenko1.57141080D. Aldayev2.251612113LAug 31 · 12:30D. Aldayev1.6712991292V. Ivnytskyi2.1010111110113WAug 24 · 17:13D. Aldayev1.401211113M. Bukata2.7510920WAug 24 · 16:00D. Aldayev1.2012116113V. Laskavyi4.331091151LAug 24 · 14:00Y. Priadko1.501311113D. Aldayev2.5011760LAug 24 · 12:30M. Bukata3.25115114113D. Aldayev1.3371131192LAug 17 · 16:00V. Ivnytskyi2.751111113D. Aldayev1.408840
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