TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079203
Played Sep 5Finished
Yurii Priadko
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
14127111161311––
Oleksandr Kolos
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:35 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYurii Priadko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYurii Priadko above · Oleksandr Kolos below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 85 set 4, 13-11 — our read held Yurii Priadko at 54.0%
85 points played in total.
H2H Yurii Priadko 23–19 Oleksandr Kolos Oleksandr Kolos has won 19 of their 42 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:35What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Priadko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-19 in 42
Priadko
Correct
gap of 4 in 42, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Priadko 1101 vs Kolos 1222
Kolos
Wrong
both rated, 122 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Priadko 80% vs Kolos 40%
Priadko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Priadko 80% vs Kolos 50%
Priadko
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Priadko +1 · Kolos +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kolos) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolos form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPriadko 1.80 / Kolos 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Priadko)-5.5pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13079203
Priadko1.80
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite67% won 41 of 61
Up 2–0, closes it100% 23 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it82% 28 of 34
Kolos1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog37% won 23 of 62
Down 0–1, comes back18% 6 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back11% 2 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePriadko6wins
AwayKolos4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderPriadko leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePriadko83.3%5 of 6
AwayKolos75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Priadko6Kolos4n = 10Priadko took 6 of 10
S2Priadko4Kolos6n = 10Kolos took 6 of 10
S3Priadko6Kolos4n = 10Priadko took 6 of 10
S4Priadko5Kolos2n = 7Priadko took 5 of 7
S5Priadko2Kolos2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPriadkoKolosP − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.238.7+2.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPriadkoKolosBasisWin rate · lifetime111 / 229 vs 157 / 29848.5%52.7%111 / 229 vs 157 / 298Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.836.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolosPriadko 1.80/Kolos 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kolos · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Priadko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 06:00Y. Priadko—14711133O. Kolos—12116111
LAug 24 · 17:43Y. Priadko—126101182O. Kolos—1011128113
WAug 24 · 16:30Y. Priadko—811813153O. Kolos—1191111132
WAug 15 · 05:30Y. Priadko—111110123O. Kolos—9712101
WJul 11 · 04:30Y. Priadko—1111113O. Kolos—8690
LJul 4 · 05:00Y. Priadko—75111162O. Kolos—111125113
LJul 1 · 15:30Y. Priadko—9101191O. Kolos—11128113
WJun 27 · 09:30Y. Priadko—1111113O. Kolos—4780
LJun 20 · 07:00Y. Priadko—11670O. Kolos—1311113
WJun 6 · 10:30Y. Priadko—1161113113O. Kolos—61131582
Y. Priadko10
LSep 5 · 10:30Y. Priadko2.631183121V. Ananiev1.4471111143LSep 5 · 09:00Y. Priadko4.50991181A. Fastov1.1711119113LSep 5 · 07:30Y. Priadko4.0091111101I. Serdiuk1.2211135123WSep 5 · 04:30Y. Priadko1.80111168113R. Boklah1.9198111142LAug 31 · 17:34V. Ivnytskyi3.00111146113Y. Priadko1.3668111182WAug 31 · 16:30Y. Priadko1.2851111123V. Klymenko3.501197101WAug 31 · 15:30Y. Priadko1.401111113D. Aldayev2.753760WAug 31 · 14:00Y. Priadko1.308121111113V. Ivnytskyi3.40111013772WAug 31 · 13:00Y. Priadko1.071111113M. Bukata7.506680LAug 24 · 17:43O. Kolos2.001011128113Y. Priadko1.73126101182
O. Kolos10
WSep 5 · 11:30I. Serdiuk1.2588100O. Kolos3.751111123WSep 5 · 10:00O. Kolos3.00121399113R. Boklah1.361011111132WSep 5 · 08:00A. Fastov1.73931211102O. Kolos2.001111103123WSep 5 · 05:00V. Ananiev2.101111121262O. Kolos1.675131014113LAug 29 · 11:30O. Kolos4.503590S. Priadko1.171111113WAug 29 · 09:30A. Fastov1.8011237782O. Kolos1.919211111113LAug 29 · 07:30R. Boklah1.3611611113O. Kolos3.00811771LAug 29 · 06:30O. Kolos4.0013151081I. Torhachov1.22151312113LAug 29 · 05:30I. Serdiuk1.301111113O. Kolos3.405950WAug 24 · 17:43O. Kolos2.001011128113Y. Priadko1.73126101182
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