TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079240
Played Sep 5Finished
Ihor Serdiuk
Home
1.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
8118111012––––
Oleksandr Kolos
Away
3.75
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:34 and never touched — 78.2% is still 78.2%
Graded at full timeIhor Serdiuk to win
78.2%
78.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingIhor Serdiuk above · Oleksandr Kolos below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 60 set 3, 10-12 — our read held Ihor Serdiuk at 78.2%
60 points played in total.
H2H Ihor Serdiuk 16–9 Oleksandr Kolos Oleksandr Kolos has won 9 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:34What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Serdiuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-9 in 25
Serdiuk
Wrong
gap of 7 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Serdiuk 1288 vs Kolos 1191
Serdiuk
Wrong
both rated, 97 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Serdiuk 60% vs Kolos 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Serdiuk 70% vs Kolos 50%
Serdiuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Serdiuk -1 · Kolos +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% — Strong (leans Serdiuk) · live re-read · sealed at 78% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolos form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSerdiuk 1.25 / Kolos 3.75
Signal prob.76% / 24%
Edge (Serdiuk)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13079240
Serdiuk1.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite73% won 83 of 114
Up 2–0, closes it98% 43 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it88% 60 of 68
Kolos3.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog35% won 20 of 58
Down 0–1, comes back19% 6 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back11% 2 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSerdiuk7wins
AwayKolos3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSerdiuk leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSerdiuk80%4 of 5
AwayKolos40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Serdiuk5Kolos5n = 10split evenly
S2Serdiuk5Kolos5n = 10split evenly
S3Serdiuk8Kolos2n = 10Serdiuk took 8 of 10
S4Serdiuk5Kolos1n = 6Serdiuk took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSerdiukKolosS − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.733.9+4.8per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSerdiukKolosBasisWin rate · lifetime233 / 349 vs 159 / 30266.8%52.7%233 / 349 vs 159 / 302Avg sets wonper match2.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.036.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SerdiukSerdiuk 1.25/Kolos 3.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
76.2%
Serdiuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kolos won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 29 · 05:30I. Serdiuk—1111113O. Kolos—5950
LAug 22 · 05:30I. Serdiuk—116991O. Kolos—71111113
LAug 1 · 11:00I. Serdiuk—10111111102O. Kolos—121397123
WMay 9 · 09:00I. Serdiuk—61111143O. Kolos—1198121
WMay 2 · 05:30I. Serdiuk—961211113O. Kolos—111110322
WApr 25 · 05:30I. Serdiuk—121111113O. Kolos—147571
WApr 18 · 05:30I. Serdiuk—11811113O. Kolos—511851
WApr 11 · 08:00I. Serdiuk—1112133O. Kolos—610110
WJan 10 · 10:30I. Serdiuk—1111123O. Kolos—99100
LJan 3 · 06:30I. Serdiuk—7480O. Kolos—1111113
I. Serdiuk10
WSep 6 · 17:00I. Torhachov2.2590I. Serdiuk1.57111WSep 6 · 16:30I. Serdiuk2.7511116113V. Ziakun1.40631141LSep 6 · 15:30I. Serdiuk1.91671121I. Torhachov1.801111733WSep 6 · 14:00I. Serdiuk1.5711713113S. Priadko2.255111151LSep 6 · 13:00I. Serdiuk1.2081231182R. Boklah4.331110113113LSep 5 · 09:30V. Ananiev3.401111113I. Serdiuk1.304980WSep 5 · 07:30Y. Priadko4.0091111101I. Serdiuk1.2211135123WSep 5 · 06:30I. Serdiuk1.2011119113R. Boklah4.33471151WSep 5 · 05:30A. Fastov2.75137761I. Serdiuk1.40111111113LAug 29 · 11:00I. Serdiuk1.83121160I. Torhachov1.83141393
O. Kolos10
WSep 5 · 10:00O. Kolos3.00121399113R. Boklah1.361011111132WSep 5 · 08:00A. Fastov1.73931211102O. Kolos2.001111103123LSep 5 · 06:00Y. Priadko1.8014711133O. Kolos1.9112116111WSep 5 · 05:00V. Ananiev2.101111121262O. Kolos1.675131014113LAug 29 · 11:30O. Kolos4.503590S. Priadko1.171111113WAug 29 · 09:30A. Fastov1.8011237782O. Kolos1.919211111113LAug 29 · 07:30R. Boklah1.3611611113O. Kolos3.00811771LAug 29 · 06:30O. Kolos4.0013151081I. Torhachov1.22151312113LAug 29 · 05:30I. Serdiuk1.301111113O. Kolos3.405950WAug 24 · 17:43O. Kolos2.001011128113Y. Priadko1.73126101182
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