TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084074
Played Sep 6Finished
Ihor Serdiuk
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1157111311115––
Serhii Priadko
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:01 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeIhor Serdiuk to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIhor Serdiuk above · Serhii Priadko below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 74 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Ihor Serdiuk at 59.3%
74 points played in total.
H2H Ihor Serdiuk 36–25 Serhii Priadko Serhii Priadko has won 25 of their 61 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:01What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Serdiuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
36-25 in 61
Serdiuk
Correct
gap of 11 in 61, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Serdiuk 1214 vs Priadko 1229
Priadko
Wrong
both rated, 15 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Serdiuk 40% vs Priadko 20%
Serdiuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Serdiuk 50% vs Priadko 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Serdiuk -3 · Priadko -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Serdiuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Priadko form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSerdiuk 1.57 / Priadko 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Serdiuk)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13084074
Serdiuk1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite72% won 86 of 119
Up 2–0, closes it98% 45 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it89% 62 of 70
Priadko2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog27% won 48 of 178
Down 0–1, comes back14% 14 of 104
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSerdiuk6wins
AwayPriadko4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSerdiuk leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSerdiuk75%3 of 4
AwayPriadko50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Serdiuk4Priadko6n = 10Priadko took 6 of 10
S2Serdiuk7Priadko3n = 10Serdiuk took 7 of 10
S3Serdiuk3Priadko7n = 10Priadko took 7 of 10
S4Serdiuk4Priadko5n = 9Priadko took 5 of 9
S5Serdiuk4Priadko1n = 5Serdiuk took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSerdiukPriadkoS − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match42.241.9+0.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSerdiukPriadkoBasisWin rate · lifetime229 / 346 vs 260 / 62366.2%41.7%229 / 346 vs 260 / 623Avg sets wonper match2.31.8per matchAvg pointsper match39.036.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SerdiukSerdiuk 1.57/Priadko 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Serdiuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Serdiuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 29 · 08:00I. Serdiuk—1011118113S. Priadko—12571182
WAug 23 · 13:00I. Serdiuk—11118113S. Priadko—771191
LAug 22 · 11:00I. Serdiuk—121213852S. Priadko—10101511113
WAug 9 · 15:30I. Serdiuk—611611113S. Priadko—11611782
WAug 8 · 08:00I. Serdiuk—13116113S. Priadko—1141161
LAug 1 · 05:30I. Serdiuk—101260S. Priadko—1214113
LJul 26 · 15:30I. Serdiuk—981141S. Priadko—11118113
WJul 24 · 15:30I. Serdiuk—711911113S. Priadko—11811482
LJul 22 · 13:30I. Serdiuk—612781S. Priadko—111011113
WJul 19 · 15:30I. Serdiuk—1171112113S. Priadko—71191462
I. Serdiuk10
WSep 6 · 17:00I. Torhachov2.2590I. Serdiuk1.57111WSep 6 · 16:30I. Serdiuk2.7511116113V. Ziakun1.40631141LSep 6 · 15:30I. Serdiuk1.91671121I. Torhachov1.801111733LSep 6 · 13:00I. Serdiuk1.2081231182R. Boklah4.331110113113LSep 5 · 11:30I. Serdiuk1.2588100O. Kolos3.751111123LSep 5 · 09:30V. Ananiev3.401111113I. Serdiuk1.304980WSep 5 · 07:30Y. Priadko4.0091111101I. Serdiuk1.2211135123WSep 5 · 06:30I. Serdiuk1.2011119113R. Boklah4.33471151WSep 5 · 05:30A. Fastov2.75137761I. Serdiuk1.40111111113LAug 29 · 11:00I. Serdiuk1.83121160I. Torhachov1.83141393
S. Priadko10
WSep 6 · 16:00S. Priadko1.6181111103R. Boklah2.20115931LSep 6 · 15:00V. Ziakun1.33111191093S. Priadko3.2557111262LSep 6 · 12:30I. Torhachov1.67916115113S. Priadko2.10111441172LSep 2 · 17:10V. Ziakun1.3311115123S. Priadko3.257711101LSep 2 · 16:30I. Torhachov1.6111911113S. Priadko2.20711841WSep 2 · 15:00S. Priadko1.531181011113R. Boklah2.3851112962LSep 2 · 13:30S. Priadko3.251112951V. Ziakun1.3351411113LSep 2 · 12:00S. Priadko4.504590S. Miroshnychenko1.171111113WAug 29 · 11:30O. Kolos4.503590S. Priadko1.171111113WAug 29 · 10:00S. Priadko2.00111177123I. Torhachov1.73421111102
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