TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079187
Played Sep 5Finished
Andrii Fastov
Home
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1311711711611––
Ihor Serdiuk
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:35 and never touched — 67.9% is still 67.9%
Graded at full timeIhor Serdiuk to win
67.9%
67.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrii Fastov above · Ihor Serdiuk below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 77 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Ihor Serdiuk at 67.9%
77 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Fastov 5–13 Ihor Serdiuk Andrii Fastov has won 5 of their 18 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:35What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Serdiuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-13 in 18
Serdiuk
Correct
gap of 8 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fastov 1219 vs Serdiuk 1321
Serdiuk
Correct
both rated, 102 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fastov 60% vs Serdiuk 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fastov 60% vs Serdiuk 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Fastov +1 · Serdiuk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Serdiuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Serdiuk form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFastov 2.75 / Serdiuk 1.40
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Serdiuk)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13079187
Fastov2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog26% won 18 of 70
Down 0–1, comes back10% 4 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 23
Serdiuk1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite73% won 83 of 114
Up 2–0, closes it98% 43 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it88% 60 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFastov5wins
AwaySerdiuk5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFastov50%3 of 6
AwaySerdiuk50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fastov6Serdiuk4n = 10Fastov took 6 of 10
S2Fastov6Serdiuk4n = 10Fastov took 6 of 10
S3Fastov5Serdiuk5n = 10split evenly
S4Fastov4Serdiuk6n = 10Serdiuk took 6 of 10
S5Fastov2Serdiuk3n = 5Serdiuk took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricFastovSerdiukF − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match44.344.5−0.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFastovSerdiukBasisWin rate · lifetime110 / 212 vs 230 / 34551.9%66.7%110 / 212 vs 230 / 345Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.839.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SerdiukFastov 2.75/Serdiuk 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.9%
Serdiuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Serdiuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 29 · 07:00A. Fastov—1111411153I. Serdiuk—713118132
WAug 22 · 07:00A. Fastov—71111113I. Serdiuk—118671
LAug 1 · 07:00A. Fastov—1171381I. Serdiuk—91115113
LJul 25 · 05:30A. Fastov—12139872I. Serdiuk—10111111113
LJul 22 · 17:33A. Fastov—61111872I. Serdiuk—114611113
WJul 22 · 14:30A. Fastov—1111115133I. Serdiuk—713611112
LMay 2 · 07:00A. Fastov—11135101I. Serdiuk—131111123
LApr 26 · 13:00A. Fastov—11911792I. Serdiuk—611711113
WApr 25 · 09:00A. Fastov—71112163I. Serdiuk—11410141
WMar 28 · 10:00A. Fastov—11114113I. Serdiuk—991191
A. Fastov10
LSep 5 · 11:00A. Fastov2.0014137882R. Boklah1.7312111111113WSep 5 · 09:00Y. Priadko4.50991181A. Fastov1.1711119113LSep 5 · 08:00A. Fastov1.73931211102O. Kolos2.001111103123WSep 5 · 07:00V. Ananiev2.6396111152A. Fastov1.44111198113WAug 29 · 10:30R. Boklah1.577870A. Fastov2.251111113LAug 29 · 09:30A. Fastov1.8011237782O. Kolos1.919211111113LAug 29 · 08:30A. Fastov3.4012961192I. Torhachov1.301011118113WAug 29 · 07:00A. Fastov3.401111411153I. Serdiuk1.30713118132WAug 29 · 05:00A. Fastov3.001111510113S. Priadko1.3699111292WAug 22 · 10:30R. Boklah1.50111471122A. Fastov2.50616115113
I. Serdiuk10
WSep 6 · 17:00I. Torhachov2.2590I. Serdiuk1.57111WSep 6 · 16:30I. Serdiuk2.7511116113V. Ziakun1.40631141LSep 6 · 15:30I. Serdiuk1.91671121I. Torhachov1.801111733WSep 6 · 14:00I. Serdiuk1.5711713113S. Priadko2.255111151LSep 6 · 13:00I. Serdiuk1.2081231182R. Boklah4.331110113113LSep 5 · 11:30I. Serdiuk1.2588100O. Kolos3.751111123LSep 5 · 09:30V. Ananiev3.401111113I. Serdiuk1.304980WSep 5 · 07:30Y. Priadko4.0091111101I. Serdiuk1.2211135123WSep 5 · 06:30I. Serdiuk1.2011119113R. Boklah4.33471151LAug 29 · 07:00A. Fastov3.401111411153I. Serdiuk1.30713118132
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