TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13037629
Played Aug 29Finished
Andrii Fastov
Home
3.40
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11711134111181513
Ihor Serdiuk
Away
1.30
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:05 and never touched — 71.2% is still 71.2%
Graded at full timeIhor Serdiuk to win
71.2%
71.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAndrii Fastov above · Ihor Serdiuk below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 15-13
Point 104 set 5, 15-13 — our read held Ihor Serdiuk at 71.2%
104 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Fastov 5–13 Ihor Serdiuk Andrii Fastov has won 5 of their 18 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:05What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Serdiuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-13 in 18
Serdiuk
Wrong
gap of 8 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fastov 1219 vs Serdiuk 1321
Serdiuk
Wrong
both rated, 102 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fastov 60% vs Serdiuk 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fastov 70% vs Serdiuk 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Fastov +2 · Serdiuk +3
Serdiuk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% — Strong (leans Serdiuk) · live re-read · sealed at 71% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Serdiuk form (60%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFastov 3.40 / Serdiuk 1.30
Signal prob.26% / 74%
Edge (Serdiuk)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13037629
Fastov3.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog26% won 18 of 70
Down 0–1, comes back10% 4 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 23
Serdiuk1.30
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite73% won 83 of 114
Up 2–0, closes it98% 43 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it88% 60 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFastov5wins
AwaySerdiuk5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFastov50%3 of 6
AwaySerdiuk50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fastov6Serdiuk4n = 10Fastov took 6 of 10
S2Fastov6Serdiuk4n = 10Fastov took 6 of 10
S3Fastov5Serdiuk5n = 10split evenly
S4Fastov4Serdiuk6n = 10Serdiuk took 6 of 10
S5Fastov2Serdiuk3n = 5Serdiuk took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricFastovSerdiukF − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match44.344.5−0.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFastovSerdiukBasisWin rate · lifetime110 / 212 vs 230 / 34551.9%66.7%110 / 212 vs 230 / 345Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.839.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SerdiukFastov 3.40/Serdiuk 1.30
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
73.9%
Serdiuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Fastov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 29 · 07:00A. Fastov—1111411153I. Serdiuk—713118132
WAug 22 · 07:00A. Fastov—71111113I. Serdiuk—118671
LAug 1 · 07:00A. Fastov—1171381I. Serdiuk—91115113
LJul 25 · 05:30A. Fastov—12139872I. Serdiuk—10111111113
LJul 22 · 17:33A. Fastov—61111872I. Serdiuk—114611113
WJul 22 · 14:30A. Fastov—1111115133I. Serdiuk—713611112
LMay 2 · 07:00A. Fastov—11135101I. Serdiuk—131111123
LApr 26 · 13:00A. Fastov—11911792I. Serdiuk—611711113
WApr 25 · 09:00A. Fastov—71112163I. Serdiuk—11410141
WMar 28 · 10:00A. Fastov—11114113I. Serdiuk—991191
A. Fastov10
LSep 5 · 11:00A. Fastov2.0014137882R. Boklah1.7312111111113WSep 5 · 09:00Y. Priadko4.50991181A. Fastov1.1711119113LSep 5 · 08:00A. Fastov1.73931211102O. Kolos2.001111103123WSep 5 · 07:00V. Ananiev2.6396111152A. Fastov1.44111198113LSep 5 · 05:30A. Fastov2.75137761I. Serdiuk1.40111111113WAug 29 · 10:30R. Boklah1.577870A. Fastov2.251111113LAug 29 · 09:30A. Fastov1.8011237782O. Kolos1.919211111113LAug 29 · 08:30A. Fastov3.4012961192I. Torhachov1.301011118113WAug 29 · 05:00A. Fastov3.001111510113S. Priadko1.3699111292WAug 22 · 10:30R. Boklah1.50111471122A. Fastov2.50616115113
I. Serdiuk10
WSep 6 · 17:00I. Torhachov2.2590I. Serdiuk1.57111WSep 6 · 16:30I. Serdiuk2.7511116113V. Ziakun1.40631141LSep 6 · 15:30I. Serdiuk1.91671121I. Torhachov1.801111733WSep 6 · 14:00I. Serdiuk1.5711713113S. Priadko2.255111151LSep 6 · 13:00I. Serdiuk1.2081231182R. Boklah4.331110113113LSep 5 · 11:30I. Serdiuk1.2588100O. Kolos3.751111123LSep 5 · 09:30V. Ananiev3.401111113I. Serdiuk1.304980WSep 5 · 07:30Y. Priadko4.0091111101I. Serdiuk1.2211135123WSep 5 · 06:30I. Serdiuk1.2011119113R. Boklah4.33471151WSep 5 · 05:30A. Fastov2.75137761I. Serdiuk1.40111111113
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