TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094026
Played Sep 7Finished
Denis Aldayev
Home
4.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1210119811119––
Yurii Priadko
Away
1.22
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
How it is goingDenis Aldayev above · Yurii Priadko below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 81 set 4, 11-9
81 points played in total.
H2H Denis Aldayev 18–16 Yurii Priadko Yurii Priadko has won 16 of their 34 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Priadko beat Aldayev 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Priadko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Priadko form (40%) is below what odds imply (82%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAldayev 4.00 / Priadko 1.22
Signal prob.23% / 77%
Edge (Priadko)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13094026
Aldayev4.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog25% won 13 of 53
Down 0–1, comes back9% 3 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 22
Priadko1.22
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 41 of 61
Up 2–0, closes it100% 23 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it82% 28 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAldayev3wins
AwayPriadko7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPriadko leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAldayev75%3 of 4
AwayPriadko100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Aldayev4Priadko6n = 10Priadko took 6 of 10
S2Aldayev2Priadko8n = 10Priadko took 8 of 10
S3Aldayev3Priadko7n = 10Priadko took 7 of 10
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away660%
These 10 meetings
MetricAldayevPriadkoA − PBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match26.332.7−6.4per matchSweeps26−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAldayevPriadkoBasisWin rate · lifetime93 / 227 vs 113 / 23341%48.5%93 / 227 vs 113 / 233Avg sets wonper match1.72.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.536.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PriadkoAldayev 4.00/Priadko 1.22
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
77%
Priadko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Aldayev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 14:00D. Aldayev—6570Y. Priadko—1111113
LAug 31 · 15:30D. Aldayev—3760Y. Priadko—1111113
LAug 24 · 14:00D. Aldayev—11760Y. Priadko—1311113
LAug 17 · 13:00D. Aldayev—11761192Y. Priadko—511119113
LAug 15 · 06:30D. Aldayev—5470Y. Priadko—1111113
LJul 18 · 07:00D. Aldayev—9550Y. Priadko—1111113
WJul 13 · 14:00D. Aldayev—1111113Y. Priadko—8780
WJul 11 · 07:30D. Aldayev—1111113Y. Priadko—5350
WJul 4 · 07:00D. Aldayev—117115113Y. Priadko—91151182
LJul 1 · 16:58D. Aldayev—6540Y. Priadko—1111113
D. Aldayev10
WSep 7 · 16:00D. Aldayev1.3012111311123M. Bukata3.40148158102LSep 7 · 15:00V. Klymenko1.911111113D. Aldayev1.809460LSep 7 · 14:00Y. Priadko1.281111113D. Aldayev3.506570LSep 7 · 12:30V. Ivnytskyi2.2011711113D. Aldayev1.61911841WAug 31 · 17:03D. Aldayev1.9111119113V. Klymenko1.80821191LAug 31 · 15:30Y. Priadko1.401111113D. Aldayev2.753760LAug 31 · 14:30D. Aldayev1.25310111282M. Bukata3.751112510113WAug 31 · 13:30V. Klymenko1.57141080D. Aldayev2.251612113LAug 31 · 12:30D. Aldayev1.6712991292V. Ivnytskyi2.1010111110113WAug 24 · 17:13D. Aldayev1.401211113M. Bukata2.7510920
Y. Priadko10
LSep 7 · 16:30Y. Priadko1.28841271V. Klymenko3.50111110113LSep 7 · 15:30Y. Priadko1.401081171V. Ivnytskyi2.7512119113WSep 7 · 14:00Y. Priadko1.281111113D. Aldayev3.506570WSep 7 · 13:00Y. Priadko1.06115811143M. Bukata8.00711115122LSep 5 · 10:30Y. Priadko2.631183121V. Ananiev1.4471111143LSep 5 · 09:00Y. Priadko4.50991181A. Fastov1.1711119113LSep 5 · 07:30Y. Priadko4.0091111101I. Serdiuk1.2211135123WSep 5 · 06:00Y. Priadko1.8014711133O. Kolos1.9112116111WSep 5 · 04:30Y. Priadko1.80111168113R. Boklah1.9198111142WAug 31 · 15:30Y. Priadko1.401111113D. Aldayev2.753760
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