TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13089186
Played Sep 7Finished
Denis Aldayev
Home
1.30
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
121411813151181210
Maksym Bukata
Away
3.40
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:21 and never touched — 69.2% is still 69.2%
Graded at full timeDenis Aldayev to win
69.2%
69.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDenis Aldayev above · Maksym Bukata below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 13-15
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 114 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Denis Aldayev at 69.2%
114 points played in total.
H2H Denis Aldayev 13–9 Maksym Bukata Maksym Bukata has won 9 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:21What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Aldayev
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-9 in 22
Aldayev
Correct
gap of 4 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Aldayev 898 vs Bukata 817
Aldayev
Correct
both rated, 81 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Aldayev 20% vs Bukata 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Aldayev 40% vs Bukata 20%
Aldayev
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Aldayev -3 · Bukata -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Aldayev) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Aldayev form (20%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAldayev 1.30 / Bukata 3.40
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Aldayev)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13089186
Aldayev1.30
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 27 of 47
Up 2–0, closes it89% 16 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it83% 20 of 24
Bukata3.40
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog32% won 9 of 28
Down 0–1, comes back11% 2 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAldayev6wins
AwayBukata4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderAldayev leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAldayev80%4 of 5
AwayBukata60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Aldayev5Bukata5n = 10split evenly
S2Aldayev8Bukata2n = 10Aldayev took 8 of 10
S3Aldayev5Bukata5n = 10split evenly
S4Aldayev5Bukata2n = 7Aldayev took 5 of 7
S5Aldayev2Bukata3n = 5Bukata took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricAldayevBukataA − BBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.738.2+2.5per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAldayevBukataBasisWin rate · lifetime92 / 226 vs 13 / 7440.7%17.6%92 / 226 vs 13 / 74Avg sets wonper match1.71.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.430.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AldayevAldayev 1.30/Bukata 3.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.7%
Aldayev · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Aldayev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 31 · 14:30D. Aldayev—310111282M. Bukata—1112510113
WAug 24 · 17:13D. Aldayev—1211113M. Bukata—10920
LAug 24 · 12:30D. Aldayev—71131192M. Bukata—115114113
LAug 17 · 14:30D. Aldayev—12115582M. Bukata—1041111113
WJun 27 · 04:30D. Aldayev—11117113M. Bukata—991191
WNov 8 · 11:30D. Aldayev—1151121103M. Bukata—131161912
WOct 3 · 13:00D. Aldayev—1111113M. Bukata—8390
WSep 20 · 06:30D. Aldayev—1111123M. Bukata—86100
WSep 13 · 06:30D. Aldayev—411711163M. Bukata—116119142
LAug 21 · 15:00D. Aldayev—811591M. Bukata—11711113
D. Aldayev10
WSep 7 · 16:59D. Aldayev4.0012118113Y. Priadko1.221091191LSep 7 · 15:00V. Klymenko1.911111113D. Aldayev1.809460LSep 7 · 14:00Y. Priadko1.281111113D. Aldayev3.506570LSep 7 · 12:30V. Ivnytskyi2.2011711113D. Aldayev1.61911841WAug 31 · 17:03D. Aldayev1.9111119113V. Klymenko1.80821191LAug 31 · 15:30Y. Priadko1.401111113D. Aldayev2.753760LAug 31 · 14:30D. Aldayev1.25310111282M. Bukata3.751112510113WAug 31 · 13:30V. Klymenko1.57141080D. Aldayev2.251612113LAug 31 · 12:30D. Aldayev1.6712991292V. Ivnytskyi2.1010111110113WAug 24 · 17:13D. Aldayev1.401211113M. Bukata2.7510920
M. Bukata10
LSep 7 · 14:30V. Ivnytskyi1.361110511113M. Bukata3.0061211662LSep 7 · 13:00Y. Priadko1.06115811143M. Bukata8.00711115122LSep 7 · 12:00V. Klymenko1.171111113M. Bukata4.506930LAug 31 · 16:00V. Ivnytskyi1.5013611113M. Bukata2.501111891WAug 31 · 14:30D. Aldayev1.25310111282M. Bukata3.751112510113LAug 31 · 13:00Y. Priadko1.071111113M. Bukata7.506680LAug 31 · 12:00V. Klymenko1.201111113M. Bukata4.335980LAug 24 · 17:13D. Aldayev1.401211113M. Bukata2.7510920LAug 24 · 15:30Y. Priadko1.0611611153M. Bukata8.008115131WAug 24 · 14:30M. Bukata2.751111113V. Laskavyi1.408990
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