TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13049617
Played Aug 31Finished
Denis Aldayev
Home
1.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
31110121151210811
Maksym Bukata
Away
3.75
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:56 and never touched — 72.7% is still 72.7%
Graded at full timeDenis Aldayev to win
72.7%
72.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDenis Aldayev above · Maksym Bukata below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 93 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Denis Aldayev at 72.7%
93 points played in total.
H2H Denis Aldayev 13–8 Maksym Bukata Maksym Bukata has won 8 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:56What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Aldayev
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-8 in 21
Aldayev
Wrong
gap of 5 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Aldayev 913 vs Bukata 846
Aldayev
Wrong
both rated, 67 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Aldayev 60% vs Bukata 20%
Aldayev
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Aldayev 30% vs Bukata 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Aldayev +1 · Bukata -4
Bukata
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Aldayev) · live re-read · sealed at 73% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Aldayev form (60%) is below what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAldayev 1.25 / Bukata 3.75
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Aldayev)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13049617
Aldayev1.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 27 of 45
Up 2–0, closes it89% 16 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it87% 20 of 23
Bukata3.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog33% won 8 of 24
Down 0–1, comes back13% 2 of 15
Down 0–2, comes back10% 1 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAldayev6wins
AwayBukata4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderAldayev leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAldayev80%4 of 5
AwayBukata60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Aldayev5Bukata5n = 10split evenly
S2Aldayev8Bukata2n = 10Aldayev took 8 of 10
S3Aldayev5Bukata5n = 10split evenly
S4Aldayev4Bukata3n = 7Aldayev took 4 of 7
S5Aldayev2Bukata2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricAldayevBukataA − BBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.437.5+1.9per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAldayevBukataBasisWin rate · lifetime92 / 225 vs 13 / 7440.9%17.6%92 / 225 vs 13 / 74Avg sets wonper match1.81.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.630.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AldayevAldayev 1.25/Bukata 3.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
75.4%
Aldayev · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Bukata won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 24 · 17:13D. Aldayev—1211113M. Bukata—10920
LAug 24 · 12:30D. Aldayev—71131192M. Bukata—115114113
LAug 17 · 14:30D. Aldayev—12115582M. Bukata—1041111113
WJun 27 · 04:30D. Aldayev—11117113M. Bukata—991191
WNov 8 · 11:30D. Aldayev—1151121103M. Bukata—131161912
WOct 3 · 13:00D. Aldayev—1111113M. Bukata—8390
WSep 20 · 06:30D. Aldayev—1111123M. Bukata—86100
WSep 13 · 06:30D. Aldayev—411711163M. Bukata—116119142
LAug 21 · 15:00D. Aldayev—811591M. Bukata—11711113
LAug 14 · 12:00D. Aldayev—751181M. Bukata—11119113
D. Aldayev10
WAug 31 · 17:03D. Aldayev1.9111119113V. Klymenko1.80821191LAug 31 · 15:30Y. Priadko1.401111113D. Aldayev2.753760WAug 31 · 13:30V. Klymenko1.57141080D. Aldayev2.251612113LAug 31 · 12:30D. Aldayev1.6712991292V. Ivnytskyi2.1010111110113WAug 24 · 17:13D. Aldayev1.401211113M. Bukata2.7510920WAug 24 · 16:00D. Aldayev1.2012116113V. Laskavyi4.331091151LAug 24 · 15:00O. Kolos1.251111411113D. Aldayev3.7513711762LAug 24 · 14:00Y. Priadko1.501311113D. Aldayev2.5011760LAug 24 · 12:30M. Bukata3.25115114113D. Aldayev1.3371131192LAug 17 · 16:00V. Ivnytskyi2.751111113D. Aldayev1.408840
M. Bukata10
LAug 31 · 16:00V. Ivnytskyi1.5013611113M. Bukata2.501111891LAug 31 · 13:00Y. Priadko1.071111113M. Bukata7.506680LAug 31 · 12:00V. Klymenko1.201111113M. Bukata4.335980LAug 24 · 17:13D. Aldayev1.401211113M. Bukata2.7510920LAug 24 · 15:30Y. Priadko1.0611611153M. Bukata8.008115131WAug 24 · 14:30M. Bukata2.751111113V. Laskavyi1.408990LAug 24 · 13:30O. Kolos1.131111113M. Bukata5.506660WAug 24 · 12:30M. Bukata3.25115114113D. Aldayev1.3371131192LAug 17 · 17:50M. Bukata8.501061161Y. Priadko1.0512119113LAug 17 · 15:30Y. Priadko1.03121111113M. Bukata10.00147761
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