TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12482404
Played Aug 24Finished
Maksym Bukata
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
117511113411119
Denis Aldayev
Away
1.33
At publish
Lost last 9Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 9
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:13 and never touched — 71.9% is still 71.9%
Graded at full timeDenis Aldayev to win
71.9%
71.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMaksym Bukata above · Denis Aldayev below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 83 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Denis Aldayev at 71.9%
83 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Bukata 7–12 Denis Aldayev Maksym Bukata has won 7 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:13What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Aldayev
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-12 in 19
Aldayev
Wrong
gap of 5 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bukata 866 vs Aldayev 904
Aldayev
Wrong
both rated, 38 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bukata 60% vs Aldayev 0%
Bukata
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bukata 50% vs Aldayev 10%
Bukata
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Bukata -2 · Aldayev -5
Aldayev
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Aldayev)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Aldayev form (0%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBukata 3.25 / Aldayev 1.33
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Aldayev)+1.0pp
Setka Cup · #12482404
Bukata3.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog32% won 6 of 19
Down 0–1, comes back17% 2 of 12
Down 0–2, comes back13% 1 of 8
Aldayev1.33
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 9
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 26 of 44
Up 2–0, closes it88% 15 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it83% 19 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBukata3wins
AwayAldayev7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderAldayev leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBukata40%2 of 5
AwayAldayev80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bukata5Aldayev5n = 10split evenly
S2Bukata3Aldayev7n = 10Aldayev took 7 of 10
S3Bukata4Aldayev6n = 10Aldayev took 6 of 10
S4Bukata5Aldayev3n = 8Bukata took 5 of 8
S5Bukata1Aldayev4n = 5Aldayev took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBukataAldayevB − ABasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.241.3−1.1per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBukataAldayevBasisWin rate · lifetime11 / 72 vs 90 / 22315.3%40.4%11 / 72 vs 90 / 223Avg sets wonper match1.11.7per matchAvg pointsper match31.035.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AldayevBukata 3.25/Aldayev 1.33
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
71.9%
Aldayev · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Bukata won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 17 · 14:30M. Bukata—1041111113D. Aldayev—12115582
LJun 27 · 04:30M. Bukata—991191D. Aldayev—11117113
LNov 8 · 11:30M. Bukata—131161912D. Aldayev—1151121103
LOct 3 · 13:00M. Bukata—8390D. Aldayev—1111113
LSep 20 · 06:30M. Bukata—86100D. Aldayev—1111123
LSep 13 · 06:30M. Bukata—116119142D. Aldayev—411711163
WAug 21 · 15:00M. Bukata—11711113D. Aldayev—811591
WAug 14 · 12:00M. Bukata—11119113D. Aldayev—751181
LJul 31 · 05:30M. Bukata—116101152D. Aldayev—011128113
LJul 24 · 09:00M. Bukata—91361182D. Aldayev—1111118113
M. Bukata10
LAug 31 · 16:00V. Ivnytskyi1.5013611113M. Bukata2.501111891WAug 31 · 14:30D. Aldayev1.25310111282M. Bukata3.751112510113LAug 31 · 13:00Y. Priadko1.071111113M. Bukata7.506680LAug 31 · 12:00V. Klymenko1.201111113M. Bukata4.335980LAug 24 · 17:13D. Aldayev1.401211113M. Bukata2.7510920LAug 24 · 15:30Y. Priadko1.0611611153M. Bukata8.008115131WAug 24 · 14:30M. Bukata2.751111113V. Laskavyi1.408990LAug 24 · 13:30O. Kolos1.131111113M. Bukata5.506660LAug 17 · 17:50M. Bukata8.501061161Y. Priadko1.0512119113LAug 17 · 15:30Y. Priadko1.03121111113M. Bukata10.00147761
D. Aldayev10
WAug 31 · 17:03D. Aldayev1.9111119113V. Klymenko1.80821191LAug 31 · 15:30Y. Priadko1.401111113D. Aldayev2.753760LAug 31 · 14:30D. Aldayev1.25310111282M. Bukata3.751112510113WAug 31 · 13:30V. Klymenko1.57141080D. Aldayev2.251612113LAug 31 · 12:30D. Aldayev1.6712991292V. Ivnytskyi2.1010111110113WAug 24 · 17:13D. Aldayev1.401211113M. Bukata2.7510920WAug 24 · 16:00D. Aldayev1.2012116113V. Laskavyi4.331091151LAug 24 · 15:00O. Kolos1.251111411113D. Aldayev3.7513711762LAug 24 · 14:00Y. Priadko1.501311113D. Aldayev2.5011760LAug 17 · 16:00V. Ivnytskyi2.751111113D. Aldayev1.408840
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