TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13130442
Played Sep 14Finished
Denis Aldayev
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
711119711119114
Yurii Priadko
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingDenis Aldayev above · Yurii Priadko below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 91 set 5, 11-4
91 points played in total.
H2H Denis Aldayev 19–17 Yurii Priadko Yurii Priadko has won 17 of their 36 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Priadko beat Aldayev 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Priadko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Priadko form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAldayev 1.91 / Priadko 1.80
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Priadko)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13130442
Aldayev1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog22% won 11 of 49
Down 0–1, comes back9% 3 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 22
Priadko1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 43 of 64
Up 2–0, closes it100% 24 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it83% 30 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAldayev3wins
AwayPriadko7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderPriadko leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAldayev75%3 of 4
AwayPriadko100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Aldayev4Priadko6n = 10Priadko took 6 of 10
S2Aldayev3Priadko7n = 10Priadko took 7 of 10
S3Aldayev3Priadko7n = 10Priadko took 7 of 10
S4Aldayev2Priadko1n = 3Aldayev took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricAldayevPriadkoA − PBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match27.232.7−5.5per matchSweeps25−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAldayevPriadkoBasisWin rate · lifetime96 / 232 vs 115 / 23841.4%48.3%96 / 232 vs 115 / 238Avg sets wonper match1.72.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.536.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PriadkoAldayev 1.91/Priadko 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.9%
Priadko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Aldayev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 14 · 15:30D. Aldayev27641161Y. Priadko3811115113
WSep 7 · 16:59D. Aldayev4212118113Y. Priadko391091191
LSep 7 · 14:00D. Aldayev186570Y. Priadko331111113
LAug 31 · 15:30D. Aldayev163760Y. Priadko331111113
LAug 24 · 14:00D. Aldayev2411760Y. Priadko351311113
LAug 17 · 13:00D. Aldayev4411761192Y. Priadko47511119113
LAug 15 · 06:30D. Aldayev165470Y. Priadko331111113
LJul 18 · 07:00D. Aldayev199550Y. Priadko331111113
WJul 13 · 14:00D. Aldayev331111113Y. Priadko238780
WJul 11 · 07:30D. Aldayev331111113Y. Priadko135350
D. Aldayev10
LSep 14 · 15:30Y. Priadko1.5711115113D. Aldayev2.25641161WSep 14 · 14:30D. Aldayev1.4081111113M. Bukata2.75118891LSep 14 · 13:30V. Klymenko1.67111116113D. Aldayev2.107131441WSep 14 · 12:30D. Aldayev2.001111113V. Ivnytskyi1.734530WSep 7 · 16:59D. Aldayev4.0012118113Y. Priadko1.221091191WSep 7 · 16:00D. Aldayev1.3012111311123M. Bukata3.40148158102LSep 7 · 15:00V. Klymenko1.911111113D. Aldayev1.809460LSep 7 · 14:00Y. Priadko1.281111113D. Aldayev3.506570LSep 7 · 12:30V. Ivnytskyi2.2011711113D. Aldayev1.61911841WAug 31 · 17:03D. Aldayev1.9111119113V. Klymenko1.80821191
Y. Priadko10
LSep 14 · 16:30Y. Priadko1.36511631V. Klymenko3.0011411113WSep 14 · 15:30Y. Priadko1.5711115113D. Aldayev2.25641161LSep 14 · 14:00Y. Priadko1.5081160V. Ivnytskyi2.501113113WSep 14 · 13:00Y. Priadko1.08118118113M. Bukata7.0031151172LSep 7 · 16:59D. Aldayev4.0012118113Y. Priadko1.221091191LSep 7 · 16:30Y. Priadko1.28841271V. Klymenko3.50111110113LSep 7 · 15:30Y. Priadko1.401081171V. Ivnytskyi2.7512119113WSep 7 · 14:00Y. Priadko1.281111113D. Aldayev3.506570WSep 7 · 13:00Y. Priadko1.06115811143M. Bukata8.00711115122LSep 5 · 10:30Y. Priadko2.631183121V. Ananiev1.4471111143
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