TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13126311
Played Sep 14Finished
Yurii Priadko
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116114511116––
Denis Aldayev
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:12 and never touched — 67.7% is still 67.7%
Graded at full timeYurii Priadko to win
67.7%
67.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYurii Priadko above · Denis Aldayev below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 65 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Yurii Priadko at 67.7%
65 points played in total.
H2H Yurii Priadko 16–19 Denis Aldayev Yurii Priadko has won 16 of their 35 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:12What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Priadko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-19 in 35
Aldayev
Wrong
gap of 3 in 35, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Priadko 1049 vs Aldayev 937
Priadko
Correct
both rated, 112 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Priadko 20% vs Aldayev 80%
Aldayev
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Priadko 30% vs Aldayev 50%
Aldayev
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Priadko -1 · Aldayev +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Priadko) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Aldayev form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPriadko 1.57 / Aldayev 2.25
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Priadko)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13126311
Priadko1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite67% won 43 of 64
Up 2–0, closes it100% 24 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it83% 30 of 36
Aldayev2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog22% won 11 of 49
Down 0–1, comes back9% 3 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePriadko6wins
AwayAldayev4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPriadko leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePriadko100%5 of 5
AwayAldayev80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Priadko5Aldayev5n = 10split evenly
S2Priadko7Aldayev3n = 10Priadko took 7 of 10
S3Priadko7Aldayev3n = 10Priadko took 7 of 10
S4Priadko1Aldayev2n = 3Aldayev took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPriadkoAldayevP − ABasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match33.329.0+4.3per matchSweeps52+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPriadkoAldayevBasisWin rate · lifetime114 / 236 vs 96 / 23148.3%41.6%114 / 236 vs 96 / 231Avg sets wonper match2.01.7per matchAvg pointsper match36.935.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PriadkoPriadko 1.57/Aldayev 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.1%
Priadko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Priadko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 16:59Y. Priadko391091191D. Aldayev4212118113
WSep 7 · 14:00Y. Priadko331111113D. Aldayev186570
WAug 31 · 15:30Y. Priadko331111113D. Aldayev163760
WAug 24 · 14:00Y. Priadko351311113D. Aldayev2411760
WAug 17 · 13:00Y. Priadko47511119113D. Aldayev4411761192
WAug 15 · 06:30Y. Priadko331111113D. Aldayev165470
WJul 18 · 07:00Y. Priadko331111113D. Aldayev199550
LJul 13 · 14:00Y. Priadko238780D. Aldayev331111113
LJul 11 · 07:30Y. Priadko135350D. Aldayev331111113
LJul 4 · 07:00Y. Priadko4491151182D. Aldayev45117115113
Y. Priadko10
LSep 14 · 14:00Y. Priadko1.5081160V. Ivnytskyi2.501113113WSep 14 · 13:00Y. Priadko1.08118118113M. Bukata7.0031151172LSep 7 · 16:59D. Aldayev4.0012118113Y. Priadko1.221091191LSep 7 · 16:30Y. Priadko1.28841271V. Klymenko3.50111110113LSep 7 · 15:30Y. Priadko1.401081171V. Ivnytskyi2.7512119113WSep 7 · 14:00Y. Priadko1.281111113D. Aldayev3.506570WSep 7 · 13:00Y. Priadko1.06115811143M. Bukata8.00711115122LSep 5 · 10:30Y. Priadko2.631183121V. Ananiev1.4471111143LSep 5 · 09:00Y. Priadko4.50991181A. Fastov1.1711119113LSep 5 · 07:30Y. Priadko4.0091111101I. Serdiuk1.2211135123
D. Aldayev10
WSep 14 · 14:30D. Aldayev1.4081111113M. Bukata2.75118891LSep 14 · 13:30V. Klymenko1.67111116113D. Aldayev2.107131441WSep 14 · 12:30D. Aldayev2.001111113V. Ivnytskyi1.734530WSep 7 · 16:59D. Aldayev4.0012118113Y. Priadko1.221091191WSep 7 · 16:00D. Aldayev1.3012111311123M. Bukata3.40148158102LSep 7 · 15:00V. Klymenko1.911111113D. Aldayev1.809460LSep 7 · 14:00Y. Priadko1.281111113D. Aldayev3.506570LSep 7 · 12:30V. Ivnytskyi2.2011711113D. Aldayev1.61911841WAug 31 · 17:03D. Aldayev1.9111119113V. Klymenko1.80821191LAug 31 · 15:30Y. Priadko1.401111113D. Aldayev2.753760
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