TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13127170
Played Sep 14Finished
Denis Aldayev
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
811118118119––
Maksym Bukata
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:25 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeDenis Aldayev to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDenis Aldayev above · Maksym Bukata below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 77 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Denis Aldayev at 65.7%
77 points played in total.
H2H Denis Aldayev 14–9 Maksym Bukata Maksym Bukata has won 9 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 24:25What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Aldayev
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-9 in 23
Aldayev
Correct
gap of 5 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Aldayev 930 vs Bukata 790
Aldayev
Correct
both rated, 139 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Aldayev 60% vs Bukata 0%
Aldayev
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Aldayev 40% vs Bukata 10%
Aldayev
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Aldayev -1 · Bukata -5
Bukata
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Aldayev) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bukata form (0%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAldayev 1.40 / Bukata 2.75
Signal prob.70% / 31%
Edge (Aldayev)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13127170
Aldayev1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 28 of 49
Up 2–0, closes it89% 16 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it83% 20 of 24
Bukata2.75
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog28% won 9 of 32
Down 0–1, comes back10% 2 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAldayev7wins
AwayBukata3wins
6 of 10 to a deciderAldayev leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAldayev80%4 of 5
AwayBukata40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Aldayev5Bukata5n = 10split evenly
S2Aldayev8Bukata2n = 10Aldayev took 8 of 10
S3Aldayev5Bukata5n = 10split evenly
S4Aldayev6Bukata1n = 7Aldayev took 6 of 7
S5Aldayev3Bukata3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricAldayevBukataA − BBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match43.339.7+3.6per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAldayevBukataBasisWin rate · lifetime95 / 230 vs 13 / 7741.3%16.9%95 / 230 vs 13 / 77Avg sets wonper match1.71.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.531.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AldayevAldayev 1.40/Bukata 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.5%
Aldayev · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Aldayev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 16:00D. Aldayev5912111311123M. Bukata55148158102
LAug 31 · 14:30D. Aldayev44310111282M. Bukata491112510113
WAug 24 · 17:13D. Aldayev341211113M. Bukata2110920
LAug 24 · 12:30D. Aldayev4171131192M. Bukata42115114113
LAug 17 · 14:30D. Aldayev4112115582M. Bukata471041111113
WJun 27 · 04:30D. Aldayev4011117113M. Bukata38991191
WNov 8 · 11:30D. Aldayev581151121103M. Bukata50131161912
WOct 3 · 13:00D. Aldayev331111113M. Bukata208390
WSep 20 · 06:30D. Aldayev341111123M. Bukata2486100
WSep 13 · 06:30D. Aldayev49411711163M. Bukata51116119142
D. Aldayev10
LSep 14 · 13:30V. Klymenko1.67111116113D. Aldayev2.107131441WSep 14 · 12:30D. Aldayev2.001111113V. Ivnytskyi1.734530WSep 7 · 16:59D. Aldayev4.0012118113Y. Priadko1.221091191WSep 7 · 16:00D. Aldayev1.3012111311123M. Bukata3.40148158102LSep 7 · 15:00V. Klymenko1.911111113D. Aldayev1.809460LSep 7 · 14:00Y. Priadko1.281111113D. Aldayev3.506570LSep 7 · 12:30V. Ivnytskyi2.2011711113D. Aldayev1.61911841WAug 31 · 17:03D. Aldayev1.9111119113V. Klymenko1.80821191LAug 31 · 15:30Y. Priadko1.401111113D. Aldayev2.753760LAug 31 · 14:30D. Aldayev1.25310111282M. Bukata3.751112510113
M. Bukata10
LSep 14 · 13:00Y. Priadko1.08118118113M. Bukata7.0031151172LSep 14 · 12:00V. Klymenko1.131111113M. Bukata5.507630LSep 7 · 16:00D. Aldayev1.3012111311123M. Bukata3.40148158102LSep 7 · 14:30V. Ivnytskyi1.361110511113M. Bukata3.0061211662LSep 7 · 13:00Y. Priadko1.06115811143M. Bukata8.00711115122LSep 7 · 12:00V. Klymenko1.171111113M. Bukata4.506930LAug 31 · 16:00V. Ivnytskyi1.5013611113M. Bukata2.501111891WAug 31 · 14:30D. Aldayev1.25310111282M. Bukata3.751112510113LAug 31 · 13:00Y. Priadko1.071111113M. Bukata7.506680LAug 31 · 12:00V. Klymenko1.201111113M. Bukata4.335980
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.