TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13155550
Played Sep 19Finished
Denis Aldayev
Home
5.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
5119111131311116
Roman Boklah
Away
1.13
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:13 and never touched — 87.8% is still 87.8%
Graded at full timeRoman Boklah to win
87.8%
87.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDenis Aldayev above · Roman Boklah below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 91 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Roman Boklah at 87.8%
91 points played in total.
H2H Denis Aldayev 3–28 Roman Boklah Denis Aldayev has won 3 of their 31 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:13What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.13 (83%)
Boklah
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-28 in 31
Boklah
Wrong
gap of 25 in 31, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Aldayev 943 vs Boklah 1123
Boklah
Wrong
both rated, 180 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Aldayev 60% vs Boklah 40%
Aldayev
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Aldayev 60% vs Boklah 40%
Aldayev
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Aldayev +1 · Boklah +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 88% — Strong (leans Boklah)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Boklah form (40%) is below what odds imply (89%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAldayev 5.50 / Boklah 1.13
Signal prob.12% / 88%
Edge (Boklah)+4.8pp
Setka Cup · #13155550
Aldayev5.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog22% won 11 of 49
Down 0–1, comes back12% 4 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 22
Boklah1.13
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite67% won 53 of 79
Up 2–0, closes it100% 22 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it80% 37 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAldayev1wins
AwayBoklah9wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBoklah leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAldayevn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayBoklah87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Aldayev2Boklah8n = 10Boklah took 8 of 10
S2Aldayev1Boklah9n = 10Boklah took 9 of 10
S3Aldayev4Boklah6n = 10Boklah took 6 of 10
S4Aldayev2Boklah4n = 6Boklah took 4 of 6
S5Aldayev1Boklah2n = 3Boklah took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricAldayevBoklahA − BBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match32.839.7−6.9per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAldayevBoklahBasisWin rate · lifetime98 / 232 vs 255 / 60842.2%41.9%98 / 232 vs 255 / 608Avg sets wonper match1.81.8per matchAvg pointsper match35.635.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BoklahAldayev 5.50/Boklah 1.13
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
87.8%
Boklah · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Aldayev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 19 · 07:30D. Aldayev49591113113R. Boklah42111131162
LJul 13 · 16:59D. Aldayev2310490R. Boklah341211113
LJul 13 · 16:00D. Aldayev227870R. Boklah331111113
LJul 4 · 11:00D. Aldayev42101161142R. Boklah44125115113
LJun 25 · 13:00D. Aldayev227960R. Boklah331111113
LApr 30 · 16:30D. Aldayev4511811872R. Boklah47711711113
LApr 12 · 12:00D. Aldayev27571141R. Boklah4211119113
LMar 25 · 15:00D. Aldayev227690R. Boklah331111113
LMar 19 · 18:34D. Aldayev4111610141R. Boklah4231112163
LMar 19 · 17:30D. Aldayev355512131R. Boklah47111110153
D. Aldayev10
WSep 19 · 06:00D. Aldayev2.1011311113V. Klymenko1.67611211LSep 19 · 04:30D. Aldayev1.67117581V. Ivnytskyi2.1081111113WSep 14 · 17:19D. Aldayev1.91711711113Y. Priadko1.8011911942LSep 14 · 15:30Y. Priadko1.5711115113D. Aldayev2.25641161WSep 14 · 14:30D. Aldayev1.4081111113M. Bukata2.75118891LSep 14 · 13:30V. Klymenko1.67111116113D. Aldayev2.107131441WSep 14 · 12:30D. Aldayev2.001111113V. Ivnytskyi1.734530WSep 7 · 16:59D. Aldayev4.0012118113Y. Priadko1.221091191WSep 7 · 16:00D. Aldayev1.3012111311123M. Bukata3.40148158102LSep 7 · 15:00V. Klymenko1.911111113D. Aldayev1.809460
R. Boklah10
WSep 19 · 06:30R. Boklah1.11711117113V. Ivnytskyi6.0011971152WSep 19 · 05:30O. Kolos2.6311913972R. Boklah1.448111111113LSep 16 · 16:00R. Boklah4.001111251S. Miroshnychenko1.2213511113LSep 16 · 15:00S. Priadko1.5711133153R. Boklah2.2541111131LSep 16 · 14:00I. Torhachov1.50101111113R. Boklah2.50127461LSep 16 · 12:30V. Ziakun1.14111711113R. Boklah5.00419381LSep 12 · 11:30I. Serdiuk1.251111113R. Boklah3.759950LSep 12 · 10:00R. Boklah2.254870I. Torhachov1.571111113WSep 12 · 08:00O. Kolos2.6311511882R. Boklah1.44911511113WSep 12 · 06:00A. Fastov2.107690R. Boklah1.671111113
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