TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116890
Played Sep 12Finished
Oleksandr Kolos
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
118118811611114
Ihor Serdiuk
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:12 and never touched — 64.9% is still 64.9%
Graded at full timeIhor Serdiuk to win
64.9%
64.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Kolos above · Ihor Serdiuk below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 89 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Ihor Serdiuk at 64.9%
89 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Kolos 10–16 Ihor Serdiuk Oleksandr Kolos has won 10 of their 26 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:12What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Serdiuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-16 in 26
Serdiuk
Wrong
gap of 6 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolos 1222 vs Serdiuk 1273
Serdiuk
Wrong
both rated, 51 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolos 80% vs Serdiuk 60%
Kolos
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolos 50% vs Serdiuk 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolos +3 · Serdiuk +2
Kolos
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Serdiuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolos form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolos 2.63 / Serdiuk 1.44
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Serdiuk)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13116890
Kolos2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog37% won 23 of 62
Down 0–1, comes back18% 6 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back11% 2 of 18
Serdiuk1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite71% won 81 of 114
Up 2–0, closes it98% 42 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it88% 57 of 65
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolos3wins
AwaySerdiuk7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSerdiuk leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolos40%2 of 5
AwaySerdiuk80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolos5Serdiuk5n = 10split evenly
S2Kolos5Serdiuk5n = 10split evenly
S3Kolos2Serdiuk8n = 10Serdiuk took 8 of 10
S4Kolos1Serdiuk5n = 6Serdiuk took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolosSerdiukK − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.039.4−5.4per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolosSerdiukBasisWin rate · lifetime157 / 298 vs 232 / 35052.7%66.3%157 / 298 vs 232 / 350Avg sets wonper match2.02.3per matchAvg pointsper match36.838.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SerdiukKolos 2.63/Serdiuk 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.9%
Serdiuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kolos won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 11:30O. Kolos—1111123I. Serdiuk—88100
LAug 29 · 05:30O. Kolos—5950I. Serdiuk—1111113
WAug 22 · 05:30O. Kolos—71111113I. Serdiuk—116991
WAug 1 · 11:00O. Kolos—121397123I. Serdiuk—10111111102
LMay 9 · 09:00O. Kolos—1198121I. Serdiuk—61111143
LMay 2 · 05:30O. Kolos—111110322I. Serdiuk—961211113
LApr 25 · 05:30O. Kolos—147571I. Serdiuk—121111113
LApr 18 · 05:30O. Kolos—511851I. Serdiuk—11811113
LApr 11 · 08:00O. Kolos—610110I. Serdiuk—1112133
LJan 10 · 10:30O. Kolos—99100I. Serdiuk—1111123
O. Kolos10
LSep 12 · 08:00O. Kolos2.6311511882R. Boklah1.44911511113LSep 12 · 07:00S. Priadko1.141111113O. Kolos5.009970WSep 5 · 11:30I. Serdiuk1.2588100O. Kolos3.751111123WSep 5 · 10:00O. Kolos3.00121399113R. Boklah1.361011111132WSep 5 · 08:00A. Fastov1.73931211102O. Kolos2.001111103123LSep 5 · 06:00Y. Priadko1.8014711133O. Kolos1.9112116111WSep 5 · 05:00V. Ananiev2.101111121262O. Kolos1.675131014113LAug 29 · 11:30O. Kolos4.503590S. Priadko1.171111113WAug 29 · 09:30A. Fastov1.8011237782O. Kolos1.919211111113LAug 29 · 07:30R. Boklah1.3611611113O. Kolos3.00811771
I. Serdiuk10
LSep 12 · 07:30A. Fastov3.0031214113I. Serdiuk1.3611101271WSep 12 · 06:30I. Serdiuk1.911212113I. Torhachov1.80101070WSep 6 · 17:00I. Torhachov2.2590I. Serdiuk1.57111WSep 6 · 16:30I. Serdiuk2.7511116113V. Ziakun1.40631141LSep 6 · 15:30I. Serdiuk1.91671121I. Torhachov1.801111733WSep 6 · 14:00I. Serdiuk1.5711713113S. Priadko2.255111151LSep 6 · 13:00I. Serdiuk1.2081231182R. Boklah4.331110113113LSep 5 · 11:30I. Serdiuk1.2588100O. Kolos3.751111123LSep 5 · 09:30V. Ananiev3.401111113I. Serdiuk1.304980WSep 5 · 07:30Y. Priadko4.0091111101I. Serdiuk1.2211135123
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