TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13147398
Played Sep 18Finished
Marian Lebek
Home
2.14
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1161210117––––
Pawel Polok
Away
1.58
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:00 and never touched — 67.0% is still 67.0%
Graded at full timePawel Polok to win
67.0%
67.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
57 points played in total.
Set by set
1161210117––––
H2H Marian Lebek 1–5 Pawel Polok Marian Lebek has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:00What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.58 (58%)
Polok
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-5 in 6
Polok
Wrong
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lebek 1408 vs Polok 1510
Polok
Wrong
both rated, 102 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lebek 20% vs Polok 60%
Polok
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lebek 40% vs Polok 60%
Polok
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lebek -3 · Polok +1
Lebek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Polok) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lebek form (20%) is below what odds imply (47%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLebek 2.14 / Polok 1.58
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Polok)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13147398
Lebek2.14
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog50% won 91 of 184
Down 0–1, comes back26% 23 of 87
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 42
Polok1.58
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite67% won 82 of 123
Up 2–0, closes it96% 45 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it84% 68 of 81
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeLebek1wins
AwayPolok5wins
2 of 6 to a deciderPolok leads 5–1, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLebekn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayPolok100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lebek1Polok5n = 6Polok took 5 of 6
S2Lebek3Polok3n = 6split evenly
S3Lebek3Polok3n = 6split evenly
S4Lebek2Polok2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricLebekPolokL − PBasisWins15−4in 6 meetingsFirst set15−4of 6Avg pointsper match37.241.2−4.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLebekPolokBasisWin rate · lifetime850 / 1458 vs 123 / 18958.3%65.1%850 / 1458 vs 123 / 189Avg sets wonper match2.22.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolokLebek 2.14/Polok 1.58
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.9%
Polok · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Lebek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 16 · 02:20M. Lebek4310119131P. Polok4212411153
LAug 21 · 04:50M. Lebek514111211132P. Polok55118147153
WAug 20 · 21:10M. Lebek331111113P. Polok226970
LAug 16 · 07:45M. Lebek361151371P. Polok46131111113
LAug 7 · 06:45M. Lebek2385100P. Polok341111123
LAug 5 · 01:35M. Lebek3737111152P. Polok48111178113
M. Lebek10
LSep 18 · 01:10M. Lebek1.3781180G. Jurowicz2.701113113LSep 18 · 24:00M. Lebek1.65811891M. Adamus2.1011811113LSep 17 · 22:25M. Lebek2.059830M. Koczyba1.641111113WSep 17 · 21:10M. Lebek2.001171110113M. Tkocz1.7151161272LSep 17 · 08:20J. Pruszkowski1.8361211113M. Lebek1.831110861LSep 17 · 07:35O. Sokolowski3.15711129113M. Lebek1.28116101132WSep 17 · 05:35O. Vincenec2.255690M. Lebek1.521111113WSep 17 · 04:50O. Jadach1.756470M. Lebek1.901111113LSep 17 · 03:10P. Adamus1.80111278113M. Lebek1.90810111172WSep 17 · 02:20J. Pruszkowski1.635111071M. Lebek2.0511912113
P. Polok10
LSep 18 · 03:35P. Kurek2.1511611113P. Polok1.60811591WSep 18 · 01:35P. Polok1.731111123M. Tkocz1.9255100LSep 18 · 24:25G. Jurowicz3.15612116113P. Polok1.30111091192LSep 17 · 23:10M. Adamus2.3513124113P. Polok1.5011101161WSep 17 · 21:35M. Koczyba1.9310870P. Polok1.721211113WSep 16 · 02:20P. Polok1.6112411153M. Lebek2.0910119131WSep 16 · 24:45J. Orszulik2.458770P. Polok1.491111113LSep 16 · 24:00S. Szostok1.881012117113P. Polok1.82121091162WSep 15 · 23:10P. Polok1.071112113K. Kowalski6.2041070LSep 15 · 22:00P. Polok1.806111071M. Tkocz1.9111712113
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