TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13145889
Played Sep 17Finished
Marian Lebek
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1157111161012117
Marek Tkocz
Away
1.71
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:24 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMarian Lebek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
91 points played in total.
Set by set
1157111161012117
H2H Marian Lebek 59–49 Marek Tkocz Marek Tkocz has won 49 of their 108 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:24What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.71 (54%)
Tkocz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
59-49 in 108
Lebek
Correct
gap of 10 in 108, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lebek 1441 vs Tkocz 1415
Lebek
Correct
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lebek 40% vs Tkocz 80%
Tkocz
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lebek 60% vs Tkocz 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lebek -2 · Tkocz +3
Tkocz
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Tkocz) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkocz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLebek 2.00 / Tkocz 1.71
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Tkocz)+0.1pp
TT Elite Series · #13145889
Lebek2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog50% won 91 of 184
Down 0–1, comes back26% 23 of 87
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 42
Tkocz1.71
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 299 of 444
Up 2–0, closes it95% 169 of 178
Up 1–0, closes it84% 244 of 289
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLebek5wins
AwayTkocz5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLebek62.5%5 of 8
AwayTkoczn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lebek8Tkocz2n = 10Lebek took 8 of 10
S2Lebek5Tkocz5n = 10split evenly
S3Lebek3Tkocz7n = 10Tkocz took 7 of 10
S4Lebek2Tkocz3n = 5Tkocz took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricLebekTkoczL − TBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match33.735.2−1.5per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLebekTkoczBasisWin rate · lifetime849 / 1458 vs 776 / 116858.2%66.4%849 / 1458 vs 776 / 1168Avg sets wonper match2.22.4per matchAvg pointsper match37.839.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkoczLebek 2.00/Tkocz 1.71
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Tkocz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Lebek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 22:50M. Lebek331111113M. Tkocz206680
LSep 10 · 22:25M. Lebek3713101131M. Tkocz47111213113
LSep 9 · 02:00M. Lebek4211851172M. Tkocz45711115113
WSep 4 · 02:20M. Lebek331111113M. Tkocz227960
LSep 1 · 22:00M. Lebek27114571M. Tkocz4291111113
WAug 27 · 21:35M. Lebek371111153M. Tkocz2878130
LAug 25 · 23:10M. Lebek228770M. Tkocz331111113
WAug 20 · 23:35M. Lebek47131148113M. Tkocz47119111152
LAug 19 · 24:25M. Lebek204880M. Tkocz331111113
WAug 14 · 24:00M. Lebek3911116113M. Tkocz35781191
M. Lebek10
LSep 17 · 08:20J. Pruszkowski1.8361211113M. Lebek1.831110861LSep 17 · 07:35O. Sokolowski3.15711129113M. Lebek1.28116101132WSep 17 · 05:35O. Vincenec2.255690M. Lebek1.521111113WSep 17 · 04:50O. Jadach1.756470M. Lebek1.901111113LSep 17 · 03:10P. Adamus1.80111278113M. Lebek1.90810111172WSep 17 · 02:20J. Pruszkowski1.635111071M. Lebek2.0511912113WSep 17 · 01:35O. Sokolowski2.955121161M. Lebek1.3511148113LSep 16 · 23:35O. Vincenec2.2011118123M. Lebek1.577911101WSep 16 · 22:50P. Adamus2.0013840M. Lebek1.701511113WSep 16 · 21:10O. Jadach1.654990M. Lebek2.031111113
M. Tkocz10
WSep 17 · 20:20W. Pytlas2.191161110102M. Tkocz1.56611612123WSep 17 · 19:35P. Zemla1.79913111122M. Tkocz1.851111139113WSep 17 · 17:35W. Jozala4.1041111692M. Tkocz1.17118911113LSep 17 · 16:50M. Koczyba1.83511115113M. Tkocz1.8111651182WSep 17 · 15:10G. Jurowicz2.7571191152M. Tkocz1.40118117113LSep 16 · 02:00J. Orszulik2.2511511113M. Tkocz1.55411971LSep 16 · 01:10S. Szostok1.8611125113M. Tkocz1.837101171WSep 16 · 24:25M. Tkocz1.1071111123K. Kowalski5.401145101LSep 15 · 22:50M. Tkocz1.746680M. Lebek1.951111113WSep 15 · 22:00P. Polok1.806111071M. Tkocz1.9111712113
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