TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13141932
Played Sep 17Finished
Oliver Vincenec
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511611911––––
Marian Lebek
Away
1.52
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:16 and never touched — 63.1% is still 63.1%
Graded at full timeMarian Lebek to win
63.1%
63.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
53 points played in total.
Set by set
511611911––––
H2H Oliver Vincenec 19–27 Marian Lebek Oliver Vincenec has won 19 of their 46 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Vincenec beat Lebek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:16What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.52 (60%)
Lebek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-27 in 46
Lebek
Correct
gap of 8 in 46, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vincenec 1357 vs Lebek 1459
Lebek
Correct
both rated, 102 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vincenec 60% vs Lebek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vincenec 30% vs Lebek 70%
Lebek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vincenec +2 · Lebek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Lebek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vincenec form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVincenec 2.25 / Lebek 1.52
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Lebek)+3.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13141932
Vincenec2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 184 of 459
Down 0–1, comes back23% 63 of 274
Down 0–2, comes back7% 10 of 138
Lebek1.52
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 242 of 384
Up 2–0, closes it97% 164 of 170
Up 1–0, closes it83% 214 of 259
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVincenec6wins
AwayLebek4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderVincenec leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVincenec80%4 of 5
AwayLebek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vincenec5Lebek5n = 10split evenly
S2Vincenec6Lebek4n = 10Vincenec took 6 of 10
S3Vincenec5Lebek5n = 10split evenly
S4Vincenec5Lebek3n = 8Vincenec took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVincenecLebekV − LBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.236.7+2.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVincenecLebekBasisWin rate · lifetime667 / 1465 vs 848 / 145645.5%58.2%667 / 1465 vs 848 / 1456Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LebekVincenec 2.25/Lebek 1.52
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.3%
Lebek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Lebek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 16 · 23:35O. Vincenec4211118123M. Lebek377911101
LAug 7 · 05:10O. Vincenec226880M. Lebek331111113
WAug 5 · 03:10O. Vincenec4918911113M. Lebek371611641
WJul 29 · 04:00O. Vincenec4011117113M. Lebek30551191
LJul 29 · 24:00O. Vincenec39157891M. Lebek46131111113
LJul 23 · 06:25O. Vincenec31571271M. Lebek43111110113
WJul 23 · 02:45O. Vincenec331111113M. Lebek215880
LJul 22 · 04:00O. Vincenec4361111692M. Lebek44117411113
WJul 22 · 24:00O. Vincenec4291111113M. Lebek35118971
WJul 16 · 05:10O. Vincenec511011811113M. Lebek4112811462
O. Vincenec10
LSep 18 · 08:35P. Adamus1.73111110113O. Vincenec2.00861291WSep 18 · 07:20O. Vincenec2.2561311113S. Szostok1.571111851LSep 18 · 06:05J. Pelka1.80115139113O. Vincenec1.91811111192WSep 18 · 04:55W. Urban1.73891391O. Vincenec2.00111111113WSep 18 · 03:25J. Nowak1.73711111092O. Vincenec2.00119812113LSep 17 · 08:00O. Vincenec2.60143751O. Jadach1.39121111113LSep 17 · 06:45O. Vincenec2.655118101J. Pruszkowski1.3911711123WSep 17 · 04:25P. Adamus1.70118119102O. Vincenec1.95711511123WSep 17 · 03:35O. Vincenec1.551211811113O. Sokolowski2.3014511982LSep 17 · 02:00O. Vincenec2.006690P. Adamus1.671111113
M. Lebek10
LSep 18 · 08:00P. Kurek2.051111113M. Lebek1.666660WSep 18 · 07:10J. Kaczmarek2.9010890M. Lebek1.271211113LSep 18 · 06:25M. Lebek2.10118851P. Polok1.6551111113WSep 18 · 04:50M. Lebek1.5711119133Y. Fomin2.209411111WSep 18 · 04:00M. Adamus2.25911571M. Lebek1.5511811113WSep 18 · 02:45M. Lebek2.141112113P. Polok1.5861070LSep 18 · 01:10M. Lebek1.3781180G. Jurowicz2.701113113LSep 18 · 24:00M. Lebek1.65811891M. Adamus2.1011811113LSep 17 · 22:25M. Lebek2.059830M. Koczyba1.641111113WSep 17 · 21:10M. Lebek2.001171110113M. Tkocz1.7151161272
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