TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13146116
Played Sep 18Finished
Jerzy Pelka
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1185111311911119
Oliver Vincenec
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:18 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJerzy Pelka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJerzy Pelka above · Oliver Vincenec below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 99 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Jerzy Pelka at 54.0%
99 points played in total.
H2H Jerzy Pelka 8–5 Oliver Vincenec Oliver Vincenec has won 5 of their 13 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:18What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Pelka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-5 in 13
Pelka
Correct
gap of 3 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pelka 1396 vs Vincenec 1339
Pelka
Correct
both rated, 57 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pelka 60% vs Vincenec 40%
Pelka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pelka 30% vs Vincenec 50%
Vincenec
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pelka +1 · Vincenec +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pelka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vincenec form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPelka 1.80 / Vincenec 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Pelka)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13146116
Pelka1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite48% won 84 of 174
Up 2–0, closes it87% 40 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it63% 59 of 94
Vincenec1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 184 of 459
Down 0–1, comes back23% 63 of 274
Down 0–2, comes back7% 10 of 138
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePelka5wins
AwayVincenec5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePelka50%3 of 6
AwayVincenec50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pelka6Vincenec4n = 10Pelka took 6 of 10
S2Pelka5Vincenec5n = 10split evenly
S3Pelka6Vincenec4n = 10Pelka took 6 of 10
S4Pelka4Vincenec5n = 9Vincenec took 5 of 9
S5Pelka2Vincenec3n = 5Vincenec took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPelkaVincenecP − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.441.8+0.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPelkaVincenecBasisWin rate · lifetime433 / 928 vs 669 / 147146.7%45.5%433 / 928 vs 669 / 1471Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PelkaPelka 1.80/Vincenec 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Pelka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Pelka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 18 · 06:05J. Pelka49115139113O. Vincenec50811111192
LAug 20 · 15:55J. Pelka531311127102O. Vincenec541561011123
WAug 20 · 09:55J. Pelka4011612113O. Vincenec323111081
WJul 24 · 17:05J. Pelka361211133O. Vincenec30109110
LJul 24 · 08:45J. Pelka29113871O. Vincenec4071111113
LJul 22 · 22:25J. Pelka371011881O. Vincenec3712311113
LJun 17 · 15:55J. Pelka4412961162O. Vincenec471011114113
WJun 17 · 09:55J. Pelka3961111113O. Vincenec33119941
WMar 5 · 16:05J. Pelka49791111113O. Vincenec4311115792
LMar 5 · 10:05J. Pelka48111111692O. Vincenec52891311113
J. Pelka10
WSep 18 · 06:55P. Adamus1.61871161J. Pelka2.2011116113WSep 18 · 04:30J. Pelka2.501111113S. Szostok1.506980LSep 18 · 03:50W. Urban1.831111113J. Pelka1.839750WSep 16 · 16:20J. Pelka1.90911911113P. Kurek1.7511911942WSep 16 · 15:05J. Pelka1.391111113B. Madej2.658780LSep 16 · 13:55J. Pelka1.6799100M. Sikon2.001111123LSep 16 · 12:45M. Rus3.001111113J. Pelka1.308880LSep 16 · 11:55J. Pelka2.6051270K. Hetnar1.421114113LSep 16 · 10:20J. Pelka1.32411111172M. Rus2.90119613113LSep 16 · 09:05J. Pelka1.399118121B. Madej2.6511411143
O. Vincenec10
WSep 18 · 04:55W. Urban1.73891391O. Vincenec2.00111111113WSep 18 · 03:25J. Nowak1.73711111092O. Vincenec2.00119812113LSep 17 · 08:00O. Vincenec2.60143751O. Jadach1.39121111113LSep 17 · 06:45O. Vincenec2.655118101J. Pruszkowski1.3911711123LSep 17 · 05:35O. Vincenec2.255690M. Lebek1.521111113WSep 17 · 04:25P. Adamus1.70118119102O. Vincenec1.95711511123WSep 17 · 03:35O. Vincenec1.551211811113O. Sokolowski2.3014511982LSep 17 · 02:00O. Vincenec2.006690P. Adamus1.671111113LSep 17 · 24:45O. Vincenec2.60981161J. Pruszkowski1.4111115113WSep 16 · 23:35O. Vincenec2.2011118123M. Lebek1.577911101
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