TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13138974
Played Sep 16Finished
Jerzy Pelka
Home
1.39
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118117118––––
Boguslaw Madej
Away
2.65
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:26 and never touched — 72.0% is still 72.0%
Graded at full timeJerzy Pelka to win
72.0%
72.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
56 points played in total.
Set by set
118117118––––
H2H Jerzy Pelka 13–7 Boguslaw Madej Boguslaw Madej has won 7 of their 20 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Madej beat Pelka 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:26What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.39 (66%)
Pelka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-7 in 20
Pelka
Correct
gap of 6 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pelka 1339 vs Madej 1264
Pelka
Correct
both rated, 75 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pelka 0% vs Madej 80%
Madej
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pelka 30% vs Madej 50%
Madej
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pelka -5 · Madej +1
Pelka
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Pelka) · live re-read · sealed at 72% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Madej form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPelka 1.39 / Madej 2.65
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Pelka)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13138974
Pelka1.39
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite49% won 83 of 168
Up 2–0, closes it89% 39 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it63% 58 of 92
Madej2.65
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog32% won 42 of 132
Down 0–1, comes back20% 16 of 82
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePelka6wins
AwayMadej4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPelka leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePelka80%4 of 5
AwayMadej60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pelka5Madej5n = 10split evenly
S2Pelka8Madej2n = 10Pelka took 8 of 10
S3Pelka8Madej2n = 10Pelka took 8 of 10
S4Pelka2Madej4n = 6Madej took 4 of 6
S5Pelka1Madej2n = 3Madej took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPelkaMadejP − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.534.6+6.9per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPelkaMadejBasisWin rate · lifetime428 / 923 vs 142 / 39346.4%36.1%428 / 923 vs 142 / 393Avg sets wonper match2.01.6per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PelkaPelka 1.39/Madej 2.65
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.8%
Pelka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Pelka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 16 · 09:05J. Pelka409118121B. Madej4011411143
WAug 25 · 13:55J. Pelka351111133B. Madej2669110
WAug 25 · 10:40J. Pelka331111113B. Madej174760
WJul 14 · 16:40J. Pelka4491311113B. Madej301111711
WJul 14 · 10:40J. Pelka507111110113B. Madej3811551252
LMay 5 · 14:20J. Pelka538111211112B. Madej51119144133
WMay 5 · 06:20J. Pelka331111113B. Madej227780
WFeb 10 · 13:45J. Pelka331111113B. Madej176470
LFeb 10 · 11:20J. Pelka50116118142B. Madej54811811163
LJan 14 · 17:40J. Pelka4410111761B. Madej51121315113
J. Pelka10
LSep 16 · 13:55J. Pelka1.6799100M. Sikon2.001111123LSep 16 · 12:45M. Rus3.001111113J. Pelka1.308880LSep 16 · 11:55J. Pelka2.6051270K. Hetnar1.421114113LSep 16 · 10:20J. Pelka1.32411111172M. Rus2.90119613113LSep 16 · 09:05J. Pelka1.399118121B. Madej2.6511411143LSep 16 · 07:55J. Pelka1.72111110662M. Sikon2.00151211113WSep 16 · 06:45P. Kurek1.809111181J. Pelka1.9111139113WSep 16 · 05:55J. Pelka2.601111113K. Hetnar1.414680LSep 11 · 14:20J. Pelka1.531731361P. Slosarczyk2.38191111113WSep 11 · 12:40M. Baron1.73711111172J. Pelka2.00111376113
B. Madej10
WSep 16 · 14:20M. Rus1.9911129752B. Madej1.678101111113LSep 16 · 13:30B. Madej3.2510550K. Hetnar1.271211113WSep 16 · 12:20B. Madej3.104111111113P. Kurek1.2911913972WSep 16 · 10:40B. Madej2.25111157113M. Sikon1.5884111112WSep 16 · 09:05J. Pelka1.399118121B. Madej2.6511411143WSep 16 · 08:20P. Kurek1.3171060B. Madej2.951112113LSep 16 · 07:30B. Madej4.10711481K. Hetnar1.1711711113LSep 16 · 06:20B. Madej1.74981191M. Rus1.9511116113LSep 9 · 16:40B. Madej2.7569100W. Urban1.361111123LSep 9 · 15:05S. Juzek1.551111113B. Madej2.257570
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