TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13138678
Played Sep 16Finished
Maksymilian Rus
Home
1.99
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1181210911711511
Boguslaw Madej
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:17 and never touched — 61.4% is still 61.4%
Graded at full timeMaksymilian Rus to win
61.4%
61.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
95 points played in total.
Set by set
1181210911711511
H2H Maksymilian Rus 22–20 Boguslaw Madej Boguslaw Madej has won 20 of their 42 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Rus beat Madej 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:17What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (54%)
Madej
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-20 in 42
Rus
Wrong
gap of 2 in 42, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rus 1187 vs Madej 1254
Madej
Correct
both rated, 68 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rus 40% vs Madej 80%
Madej
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rus 40% vs Madej 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rus +1 · Madej -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Madej) · live re-read · sealed at 39% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Madej form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRus 1.99 / Madej 1.67
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Madej)+0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13138678
Rus1.99
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog30% won 71 of 238
Down 0–1, comes back15% 23 of 157
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 98
Madej1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite36% won 9 of 25
Up 2–0, closes it83% 5 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it58% 7 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRus5wins
AwayMadej5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRus75%3 of 4
AwayMadej66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rus4Madej6n = 10Madej took 6 of 10
S2Rus6Madej4n = 10Rus took 6 of 10
S3Rus3Madej7n = 10Madej took 7 of 10
S4Rus6Madej3n = 9Rus took 6 of 9
S5Rus3Madej3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRusMadejR − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match45.245.8−0.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRusMadejBasisWin rate · lifetime130 / 403 vs 141 / 39232.3%36%130 / 403 vs 141 / 392Avg sets wonper match1.61.6per matchAvg pointsper match36.636.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MadejRus 1.99/Madej 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.4%
Madej · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Madej won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 16 · 06:20M. Rus3911116113B. Madej37981191
WSep 9 · 14:20M. Rus55912149113B. Madej491110121152
WSep 9 · 06:20M. Rus4011116123B. Madej377911101
LSep 2 · 14:20M. Rus421691161B. Madej49141113113
WSep 2 · 06:20M. Rus50911711123B. Madej44117115102
LAug 25 · 12:45M. Rus5612111111112B. Madej58149913133
LAug 25 · 06:20M. Rus45911101142B. Madej50117129113
LAug 18 · 14:20M. Rus54810171182B. Madej571112158113
LAug 18 · 06:20M. Rus187380B. Madej331111113
WJul 28 · 14:20M. Rus531111911113B. Madej4491311742
M. Rus10
LSep 16 · 15:30M. Rus3.405440P. Kurek1.241111113WSep 16 · 12:45M. Rus3.001111113J. Pelka1.308880LSep 16 · 11:30M. Rus2.601311141172M. Sikon1.41159163113WSep 16 · 10:20J. Pelka1.32411111172M. Rus2.90119613113LSep 16 · 09:30P. Kurek1.261211113M. Rus3.2510740LSep 16 · 08:45M. Rus4.30811118152K. Hetnar1.16116811173LSep 16 · 07:10M. Rus2.60711115142M. Sikon1.41115911163WSep 16 · 06:20B. Madej1.74981191M. Rus1.9511116113LSep 9 · 17:05M. Rus3.85510100K. Adamus1.191112123LSep 9 · 15:30M. Rus2.557950W. Buczynski1.411111113
B. Madej10
LSep 16 · 15:05J. Pelka1.391111113B. Madej2.658780LSep 16 · 13:30B. Madej3.2510550K. Hetnar1.271211113WSep 16 · 12:20B. Madej3.104111111113P. Kurek1.2911913972WSep 16 · 10:40B. Madej2.25111157113M. Sikon1.5884111112WSep 16 · 09:05J. Pelka1.399118121B. Madej2.6511411143WSep 16 · 08:20P. Kurek1.3171060B. Madej2.951112113LSep 16 · 07:30B. Madej4.10711481K. Hetnar1.1711711113LSep 16 · 06:20B. Madej1.74981191M. Rus1.9511116113LSep 9 · 16:40B. Madej2.7569100W. Urban1.361111123LSep 9 · 15:05S. Juzek1.551111113B. Madej2.257570
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