TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13137377
Played Sep 16Finished
Pawel Kurek
Home
1.26
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210117114––––
Maksymilian Rus
Away
3.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:49 and never touched — 55.6% is still 55.6%
Graded at full timePawel Kurek to win
55.6%
55.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
55 points played in total.
Set by set
1210117114––––
H2H Pawel Kurek 2–0 Maksymilian Rus Maksymilian Rus has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:49What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.26 (72%)
Kurek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kurek 1400 vs Rus 1155
Kurek
Correct
both rated, 245 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kurek 60% vs Rus 20%
Kurek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kurek 50% vs Rus 30%
Kurek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kurek -2 · Rus -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Kurek) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rus form (20%) is below what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKurek 1.26 / Rus 3.25
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Kurek)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13137377
Kurek1.26
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite66% won 208 of 317
Up 2–0, closes it94% 96 of 102
Up 1–0, closes it84% 144 of 171
Rus3.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog30% won 71 of 238
Down 0–1, comes back15% 23 of 157
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 98
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeKurek2wins
AwayRus0wins
1 of 2 to a deciderKurek leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricKurekRusK − RBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match48.037.0+11.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKurekRusBasisWin rate · lifetime407 / 810 vs 128 / 39950.3%32.1%407 / 810 vs 128 / 399Avg sets wonper match2.01.6per matchAvg pointsper match37.436.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KurekKurek 1.26/Rus 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
74.9%
Kurek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kurek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 25 · 17:05P. Kurek5411111011113M. Rus4467121362
WAug 25 · 08:45P. Kurek4291111113M. Rus30116491
P. Kurek10
LSep 16 · 08:20P. Kurek1.3171060B. Madej2.951112113LSep 16 · 06:45P. Kurek1.809111181J. Pelka1.9111139113WSep 16 · 05:30P. Kurek1.571111113M. Sikon2.257960WSep 14 · 13:55M. Sikon2.50411981P. Kurek1.5011511113WSep 14 · 13:05J. Kaczmarek2.386980P. Kurek1.531111113WSep 14 · 12:15P. Kurek2.38811114113L. Oracz1.5311871162LSep 14 · 10:35P. Kurek2.63101111992K. Slawinski1.44129311113LSep 14 · 09:50P. Przewlocki2.1015916153P. Kurek1.67131114131WSep 14 · 08:35P. Kurek2.381411123L. Oracz1.53124100LSep 14 · 06:55P. Kurek1.4491050J. Kaczmarek2.631112113
M. Rus10
WSep 16 · 10:20J. Pelka1.32411111172M. Rus2.90119613113LSep 16 · 08:45M. Rus4.30811118152K. Hetnar1.16116811173LSep 16 · 07:10M. Rus2.60711115142M. Sikon1.41115911163WSep 16 · 06:20B. Madej1.74981191M. Rus1.9511116113LSep 9 · 17:05M. Rus3.85510100K. Adamus1.191112123LSep 9 · 15:30M. Rus2.557950W. Buczynski1.411111113WSep 9 · 14:20M. Rus1.92912149113B. Madej1.731110121152WSep 9 · 12:45M. Rus2.701113123S. Juzek1.37811100LSep 9 · 11:30M. Rus2.9011440W. Urban1.331311113LSep 9 · 10:20S. Juzek1.41811911153M. Rus2.60114113132
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