TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13138690
Played Sep 16Finished
Maksymilian Rus
Home
3.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118118118––––
Jerzy Pelka
Away
1.30
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:20 and never touched — 67.6% is still 67.6%
Graded at full timeJerzy Pelka to win
67.6%
67.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
57 points played in total.
Set by set
118118118––––
H2H Maksymilian Rus 3–10 Jerzy Pelka Maksymilian Rus has won 3 of their 13 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Rus beat Pelka 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:20What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (70%)
Pelka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-10 in 13
Pelka
Wrong
gap of 7 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rus 1162 vs Pelka 1375
Pelka
Wrong
both rated, 213 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rus 20% vs Pelka 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rus 40% vs Pelka 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rus -1 · Pelka -4
Pelka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% — Strong (leans Pelka) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pelka form (20%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRus 3.00 / Pelka 1.30
Signal prob.26% / 74%
Edge (Pelka)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13138690
Rus3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog30% won 71 of 238
Down 0–1, comes back15% 23 of 157
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 98
Pelka1.30
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite49% won 83 of 168
Up 2–0, closes it89% 39 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it63% 58 of 92
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRus3wins
AwayPelka7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPelka leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRus50%2 of 4
AwayPelka83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rus4Pelka6n = 10Pelka took 6 of 10
S2Rus3Pelka7n = 10Pelka took 7 of 10
S3Rus3Pelka7n = 10Pelka took 7 of 10
S4Rus2Pelka2n = 4split evenly
S5Rus1Pelka2n = 3Pelka took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricRusPelkaR − PBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match31.037.1−6.1per matchSweeps15−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRusPelkaBasisWin rate · lifetime129 / 402 vs 431 / 92432.1%46.7%129 / 402 vs 431 / 924Avg sets wonper match1.62.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.638.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PelkaRus 3.00/Pelka 1.30
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
74.2%
Pelka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Rus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 16 · 10:20M. Rus50119613113J. Pelka44411111172
LAug 25 · 11:30M. Rus229850J. Pelka331111113
WAug 25 · 07:10M. Rus3521111113J. Pelka35117891
LJul 14 · 11:30M. Rus187920J. Pelka331111113
LJul 14 · 07:10M. Rus47111171082J. Pelka52991112113
WJul 9 · 14:20M. Rus351111133J. Pelka2485110
LJul 9 · 06:20M. Rus2481150J. Pelka351113113
LApr 21 · 12:20M. Rus4011511492J. Pelka48911611113
LApr 21 · 08:20M. Rus2310580J. Pelka341211113
LFeb 10 · 16:30M. Rus168440J. Pelka331111113
M. Rus10
LSep 16 · 11:30M. Rus2.601311141172M. Sikon1.41159163113WSep 16 · 10:20J. Pelka1.32411111172M. Rus2.90119613113LSep 16 · 09:30P. Kurek1.261211113M. Rus3.2510740LSep 16 · 08:45M. Rus4.30811118152K. Hetnar1.16116811173LSep 16 · 07:10M. Rus2.60711115142M. Sikon1.41115911163WSep 16 · 06:20B. Madej1.74981191M. Rus1.9511116113LSep 9 · 17:05M. Rus3.85510100K. Adamus1.191112123LSep 9 · 15:30M. Rus2.557950W. Buczynski1.411111113WSep 9 · 14:20M. Rus1.92912149113B. Madej1.731110121152WSep 9 · 12:45M. Rus2.701113123S. Juzek1.37811100
J. Pelka10
LSep 16 · 11:55J. Pelka2.6051270K. Hetnar1.421114113LSep 16 · 10:20J. Pelka1.32411111172M. Rus2.90119613113LSep 16 · 09:05J. Pelka1.399118121B. Madej2.6511411143LSep 16 · 07:55J. Pelka1.72111110662M. Sikon2.00151211113WSep 16 · 06:45P. Kurek1.809111181J. Pelka1.9111139113WSep 16 · 05:55J. Pelka2.601111113K. Hetnar1.414680LSep 11 · 14:20J. Pelka1.531731361P. Slosarczyk2.38191111113WSep 11 · 12:40M. Baron1.73711111172J. Pelka2.00111376113WSep 11 · 11:50Z. Sobkow1.7391271192J. Pelka2.001110119113LSep 11 · 11:00J. Pelka1.50861111112O. Sokolowski2.50111148133
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