TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13138693
Played Sep 16Finished
Boguslaw Madej
Home
3.10
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
4111191113119117
Pawel Kurek
Away
1.29
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:20 and never touched — 73.3% is still 73.3%
Graded at full timePawel Kurek to win
73.3%
73.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
97 points played in total.
Set by set
4111191113119117
H2H Boguslaw Madej 1–4 Pawel Kurek Boguslaw Madej has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Madej beat Kurek 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:20What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.29 (71%)
Kurek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Kurek
Wrong
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Madej 1245 vs Kurek 1420
Kurek
Wrong
both rated, 176 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Madej 60% vs Kurek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Madej 30% vs Kurek 60%
Kurek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Madej +3 · Kurek +2
Madej
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Kurek) · live re-read · sealed at 73% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kurek form (60%) is below what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMadej 3.10 / Kurek 1.29
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Kurek)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13138693
Madej3.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog32% won 42 of 132
Down 0–1, comes back20% 16 of 82
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 48
Kurek1.29
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 208 of 317
Up 2–0, closes it94% 96 of 102
Up 1–0, closes it84% 144 of 171
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeMadej1wins
AwayKurek4wins
Kurek leads 4–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMadejn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayKurek100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Madej1Kurek4n = 5Kurek took 4 of 5
S2Madej2Kurek3n = 5Kurek took 3 of 5
S3Madej1Kurek4n = 5Kurek took 4 of 5
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away360%
These 5 meetings
MetricMadejKurekM − KBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match27.633.0−5.4per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMadejKurekBasisWin rate · lifetime140 / 390 vs 409 / 81235.9%50.4%140 / 390 vs 409 / 812Avg sets wonper match1.62.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KurekMadej 3.10/Kurek 1.29
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
75%
Kurek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Madej won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 16 · 08:20B. Madej341112113P. Kurek2371060
LAug 25 · 11:55B. Madej227960P. Kurek331111113
LAug 25 · 07:30B. Madej389111261P. Kurek4311714113
LJun 25 · 17:05B. Madej249690P. Kurek331111113
LJun 25 · 08:45B. Madej209650P. Kurek331111113
B. Madej10
WSep 16 · 10:40B. Madej2.25111157113M. Sikon1.5884111112WSep 16 · 09:05J. Pelka1.399118121B. Madej2.6511411143WSep 16 · 08:20P. Kurek1.3171060B. Madej2.951112113LSep 16 · 07:30B. Madej4.10711481K. Hetnar1.1711711113LSep 16 · 06:20B. Madej1.74981191M. Rus1.9511116113LSep 9 · 16:40B. Madej2.7569100W. Urban1.361111123LSep 9 · 15:05S. Juzek1.551111113B. Madej2.257570LSep 9 · 14:20M. Rus1.92912149113B. Madej1.731110121152LSep 9 · 13:30B. Madej3.20115131182K. Adamus1.305111113113LSep 9 · 12:20B. Madej2.4461171192W. Buczynski1.45114115113
P. Kurek10
WSep 16 · 11:05P. Kurek2.2512611113K. Hetnar1.571011771WSep 16 · 09:30P. Kurek1.261211113M. Rus3.2510740LSep 16 · 08:20P. Kurek1.3171060B. Madej2.951112113LSep 16 · 06:45P. Kurek1.809111181J. Pelka1.9111139113WSep 16 · 05:30P. Kurek1.571111113M. Sikon2.257960WSep 14 · 13:55M. Sikon2.50411981P. Kurek1.5011511113WSep 14 · 13:05J. Kaczmarek2.386980P. Kurek1.531111113WSep 14 · 12:15P. Kurek2.38811114113L. Oracz1.5311871162LSep 14 · 10:35P. Kurek2.63101111992K. Slawinski1.44129311113LSep 14 · 09:50P. Przewlocki2.1015916153P. Kurek1.67131114131
Upcoming Matches
B. Madej
P. Kurek
Sep 16 · 13:10P. Kurek1.65M. Sikon2.05—Sep 16 · 14:45P. Kurek2.32K. Hetnar1.49—Sep 16 · 15:30P. Kurek1.24M. Rus3.40—Sep 16 · 16:20P. Kurek1.66J. Pelka2.05—Sep 17 · 03:25P. Kurek1.73W. Ptak2.00—Sep 17 · 04:10P. Kurek1.22I. Szymanski4.00—Sep 17 · 05:15P. Kurek2.25P. Gumulinski1.57—Sep 17 · 06:30P. Kurek1.14K. Kowalski5.00—Sep 17 · 07:45P. Kurek2.20L. Oracz1.61—Sep 17 · 09:25P. Kurek1.73W. Ptak2.00—
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