TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13138684
Played Sep 16Finished
Boguslaw Madej
Home
3.25
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012511511––––
Krzysztof Hetnar
Away
1.27
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:18 and never touched — 64.9% is still 64.9%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Hetnar to win
64.9%
64.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
54 points played in total.
Set by set
1012511511––––
H2H Boguslaw Madej 5–8 Krzysztof Hetnar Boguslaw Madej has won 5 of their 13 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Hetnar beat Madej 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:18What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.27 (72%)
Hetnar
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-8 in 13
Hetnar
Correct
gap of 3 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Madej 1261 vs Hetnar 1479
Hetnar
Correct
both rated, 217 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Madej 80% vs Hetnar 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Madej 40% vs Hetnar 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Madej +4 · Hetnar +1
Madej
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Hetnar) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Madej form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMadej 3.25 / Hetnar 1.27
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Hetnar)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13138684
Madej3.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog32% won 42 of 132
Down 0–1, comes back20% 16 of 82
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 48
Hetnar1.27
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite69% won 264 of 385
Up 2–0, closes it98% 146 of 149
Up 1–0, closes it85% 215 of 253
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMadej3wins
AwayHetnar7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderHetnar leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMadej60%3 of 5
AwayHetnar100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Madej5Hetnar5n = 10split evenly
S2Madej5Hetnar5n = 10split evenly
S3Madej1Hetnar9n = 10Hetnar took 9 of 10
S4Madej5Hetnar3n = 8Madej took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMadejHetnarM − HBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.239.6−3.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMadejHetnarBasisWin rate · lifetime141 / 392 vs 721 / 117736%61.3%141 / 392 vs 721 / 1177Avg sets wonper match1.62.3per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HetnarMadej 3.25/Hetnar 1.27
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.1%
Hetnar · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Hetnar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 16 · 07:30B. Madej30711481K. Hetnar4011711113
LMay 5 · 16:40B. Madej199640K. Hetnar331111113
WMay 5 · 10:40B. Madej3711114113K. Hetnar35961191
WFeb 17 · 14:55B. Madej3911116113K. Hetnar30571171
LFeb 17 · 08:55B. Madej2475120K. Hetnar361111143
LNov 4 · 17:25B. Madej361196101K. Hetnar3951111123
LNov 4 · 10:55B. Madej5013961752K. Hetnar5911111115113
WOct 28 · 13:45B. Madej43111110113K. Hetnar32861261
LOct 28 · 11:20B. Madej4181110121K. Hetnar4211512143
LAug 28 · 12:45B. Madej4369111252K. Hetnar501111710113
B. Madej10
WSep 16 · 14:20M. Rus1.9911129752B. Madej1.678101111113WSep 16 · 12:20B. Madej3.104111111113P. Kurek1.2911913972WSep 16 · 10:40B. Madej2.25111157113M. Sikon1.5884111112WSep 16 · 09:05J. Pelka1.399118121B. Madej2.6511411143WSep 16 · 08:20P. Kurek1.3171060B. Madej2.951112113LSep 16 · 07:30B. Madej4.10711481K. Hetnar1.1711711113LSep 16 · 06:20B. Madej1.74981191M. Rus1.9511116113LSep 9 · 16:40B. Madej2.7569100W. Urban1.361111123LSep 9 · 15:05S. Juzek1.551111113B. Madej2.257570LSep 9 · 14:20M. Rus1.92912149113B. Madej1.731110121152
K. Hetnar10
LSep 16 · 14:45P. Kurek2.321111113K. Hetnar1.496780WSep 16 · 11:55J. Pelka2.6051270K. Hetnar1.421114113LSep 16 · 11:05P. Kurek2.2512611113K. Hetnar1.571011771WSep 16 · 09:55K. Hetnar1.3311119153M. Sikon2.858611131WSep 16 · 08:45M. Rus4.30811118152K. Hetnar1.16116811173WSep 16 · 07:30B. Madej4.10711481K. Hetnar1.1711711113LSep 16 · 05:55J. Pelka2.601111113K. Hetnar1.414680LSep 15 · 14:40M. Baron2.631111113K. Hetnar1.448850LSep 15 · 13:30K. Hetnar2.0011711632K. Slawinski1.73311811113LSep 15 · 12:15P. Gumulinski1.8311811113K. Hetnar1.83811681
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