TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13129313
Played Sep 15Finished
Mariusz Baron
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118118115––––
Krzysztof Hetnar
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:40 and never touched — 66.1% is still 66.1%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Hetnar to win
66.1%
66.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMariusz Baron above · Krzysztof Hetnar below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 54 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Krzysztof Hetnar at 66.1%
54 points played in total.
H2H Mariusz Baron 21–28 Krzysztof Hetnar Mariusz Baron has won 21 of their 49 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:40What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Hetnar
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-28 in 49
Hetnar
Wrong
gap of 7 in 49, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baron 1259 vs Hetnar 1501
Hetnar
Wrong
both rated, 242 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baron 20% vs Hetnar 60%
Hetnar
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baron 30% vs Hetnar 50%
Hetnar
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Baron -4 · Hetnar -2
Baron
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Hetnar) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baron form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaron 2.63 / Hetnar 1.44
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Hetnar)+3.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13129313
Baron2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 181 of 456
Down 0–1, comes back25% 62 of 248
Down 0–2, comes back9% 12 of 129
Hetnar1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite69% won 266 of 385
Up 2–0, closes it98% 147 of 150
Up 1–0, closes it85% 216 of 253
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBaron5wins
AwayHetnar5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaron100%4 of 4
AwayHetnar83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baron4Hetnar6n = 10Hetnar took 6 of 10
S2Baron3Hetnar7n = 10Hetnar took 7 of 10
S3Baron8Hetnar2n = 10Baron took 8 of 10
S4Baron2Hetnar5n = 7Hetnar took 5 of 7
S5Baron2Hetnar1n = 3Baron took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBaronHetnarB − HBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.038.6−2.6per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaronHetnarBasisWin rate · lifetime874 / 1819 vs 717 / 117148.1%61.2%874 / 1819 vs 717 / 1171Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match39.838.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HetnarBaron 2.63/Hetnar 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.1%
Hetnar · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Baron won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 15 · 06:05M. Baron185850K. Hetnar331111113
WAug 24 · 09:50M. Baron361114113K. Hetnar2681260
WAug 24 · 05:40M. Baron4381113113K. Hetnar391191181
WAug 21 · 09:25M. Baron4011711113K. Hetnar30611761
LAug 21 · 03:25M. Baron44711111142K. Hetnar48114913113
LAug 7 · 10:35M. Baron187830K. Hetnar331111113
LAug 7 · 03:00M. Baron30771151K. Hetnar4111118113
WJun 3 · 15:10M. Baron511171110123K. Hetnar49811812102
WMar 12 · 14:55M. Baron521110119113K. Hetnar4591261172
LMar 12 · 08:55M. Baron28551171K. Hetnar4211119113
M. Baron10
LSep 15 · 13:05M. Baron1.83116111192P. Gumulinski1.83711139113LSep 15 · 11:50M. Baron2.20121381082P. Przewlocki1.6110111112113LSep 15 · 10:10M. Baron1.8311714992M. Sikon1.837111211113LSep 15 · 09:00M. Baron3.005117121K. Slawinski1.3611811143WSep 15 · 07:45M. Sikon1.83146111272M. Baron1.831611710113LSep 15 · 06:55P. Gumulinski1.83139426133M. Baron1.8311111124112LSep 15 · 06:05M. Baron2.505850K. Hetnar1.501111113WSep 15 · 04:30M. Baron2.631411113K. Slawinski1.4412980WSep 15 · 03:50P. Przewlocki1.831212591M. Baron1.83141011113LSep 14 · 16:40P. Mecik2.001111113M. Baron1.728990
K. Hetnar10
LSep 15 · 13:30K. Hetnar2.0011711632K. Slawinski1.73311811113LSep 15 · 12:15P. Gumulinski1.8311811113K. Hetnar1.83811681WSep 15 · 11:00P. Przewlocki2.384440K. Hetnar1.531111113WSep 15 · 09:25M. Sikon2.7534110K. Hetnar1.401111133WSep 15 · 08:35P. Gumulinski2.107780K. Hetnar1.671111113WSep 15 · 07:20K. Hetnar1.9171111123K. Slawinski1.801167101WSep 15 · 06:05M. Baron2.505850K. Hetnar1.501111113LSep 15 · 04:55P. Przewlocki2.38514113113K. Hetnar1.53111271192WSep 15 · 03:25M. Sikon3.001161041K. Hetnar1.3691112113LSep 10 · 17:05K. Hetnar1.8611119592O. Jadach1.80451111113
Upcoming Matches
M. Baron
Nothing scheduled
K. Hetnar
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