TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13129339
Played Sep 15Finished
Piotr Gumulinski
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
131191141126241311
Mariusz Baron
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:41 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePiotr Gumulinski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPiotr Gumulinski above · Mariusz Baron below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 26-24
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 133 set 5, 13-11 — our read held Piotr Gumulinski at 54.0%
133 points played in total.
H2H Piotr Gumulinski 97–118 Mariusz Baron Piotr Gumulinski has won 97 of their 215 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:41What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Baron
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
97-118 in 215
Baron
Wrong
gap of 21 in 215, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gumulinski 1438 vs Baron 1285
Gumulinski
Correct
both rated, 152 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gumulinski 40% vs Baron 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gumulinski 40% vs Baron 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gumulinski -3 · Baron -1
Gumulinski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Gumulinski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baron form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGumulinski 1.83 / Baron 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Gumulinski)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13129339
Gumulinski1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Baron1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGumulinski2wins
AwayBaron8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderBaron leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGumulinskin = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayBaron87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gumulinski2Baron8n = 10Baron took 8 of 10
S2Gumulinski3Baron7n = 10Baron took 7 of 10
S3Gumulinski4Baron6n = 10Baron took 6 of 10
S4Gumulinski4Baron3n = 7Gumulinski took 4 of 7
S5Gumulinski1Baron3n = 4Baron took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricGumulinskiBaronG − BBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match39.244.4−5.2per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGumulinskiBaronBasisWin rate · lifetime1023 / 1824 vs 873 / 181456.1%48.1%1023 / 1824 vs 873 / 1814Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.339.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GumulinskiGumulinski 1.83/Baron 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Gumulinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Gumulinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 16 · 19:10P. Gumulinski4131191172M. Baron47118116113
LJul 23 · 11:30P. Gumulinski6413141016112M. Baron6611161214133
WJul 23 · 07:10P. Gumulinski49125129113M. Baron481011101162
LJul 22 · 09:25P. Gumulinski321041171M. Baron4312119113
LJul 22 · 03:25P. Gumulinski2581070M. Baron341112113
LJul 13 · 24:45P. Gumulinski2211380M. Baron351311113
WJul 12 · 22:20P. Gumulinski4181111113M. Baron34115991
LJul 6 · 23:30P. Gumulinski341011941M. Baron3812411113
LJul 6 · 19:10P. Gumulinski2474130M. Baron371111153
LJun 30 · 24:30P. Gumulinski60991615112M. Baron6211111413133
P. Gumulinski10
LSep 15 · 05:40P. Gumulinski1.40581191P. Przewlocki2.7511119113LSep 15 · 04:10P. Gumulinski1.3311891162M. Sikon3.25711115113LSep 15 · 03:00P. Gumulinski1.911011561K. Slawinski1.8012911113WSep 9 · 14:20P. Kurek2.38711261P. Gumulinski1.5311311113WSep 9 · 13:30K. Schaniel2.2591111792P. Gumulinski1.57119911113WSep 9 · 11:25P. Przewlocki2.75811101152P. Gumulinski1.40116129113LSep 9 · 10:35R. Gajda2.10117811113P. Gumulinski1.6781111792LSep 9 · 09:00O. Vincenec2.1012911113P. Gumulinski1.671011991LSep 9 · 08:10P. Kurek2.50117911123P. Gumulinski1.50811119102WSep 9 · 07:20K. Schaniel2.107650P. Gumulinski1.671111113
M. Baron10
LSep 15 · 06:05M. Baron2.505850K. Hetnar1.501111113WSep 15 · 04:30M. Baron2.631411113K. Slawinski1.4412980WSep 15 · 03:50P. Przewlocki1.831212591M. Baron1.83141011113LSep 14 · 16:40P. Mecik2.001111113M. Baron1.728990LSep 14 · 15:55J. Pruszkowski1.85811118113M. Baron1.8011961172WSep 14 · 13:55Y. Fomin1.746960M. Baron1.951111113WSep 14 · 13:10G. Wichowski1.5311991182M. Baron2.35611116113LSep 14 · 11:30W. Tobiasz1.951111113M. Baron1.719940LSep 14 · 10:40P. Mecik1.99811911123M. Baron1.68119119102WSep 14 · 09:55J. Pruszkowski1.4571111562M. Baron2.50118811113
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