TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13129256
Played Sep 15Finished
Mariusz Baron
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511811511––––
Krzysztof Hetnar
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:20 and never touched — 66.1% is still 66.1%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Hetnar to win
66.1%
66.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMariusz Baron above · Krzysztof Hetnar below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 51 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Krzysztof Hetnar at 66.1%
51 points played in total.
H2H Mariusz Baron 21–28 Krzysztof Hetnar Mariusz Baron has won 21 of their 49 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:20What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Hetnar
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-28 in 49
Hetnar
Correct
gap of 7 in 49, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baron 1292 vs Hetnar 1448
Hetnar
Correct
both rated, 156 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baron 60% vs Hetnar 20%
Baron
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baron 60% vs Hetnar 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Baron +2 · Hetnar -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Hetnar)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hetnar form (20%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaron 2.50 / Hetnar 1.50
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Hetnar)+3.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13129256
Baron2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog40% won 181 of 456
Down 0–1, comes back25% 62 of 248
Down 0–2, comes back9% 12 of 129
Hetnar1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite69% won 266 of 385
Up 2–0, closes it98% 147 of 150
Up 1–0, closes it85% 216 of 253
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBaron5wins
AwayHetnar5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaron100%4 of 4
AwayHetnar83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baron4Hetnar6n = 10Hetnar took 6 of 10
S2Baron3Hetnar7n = 10Hetnar took 7 of 10
S3Baron8Hetnar2n = 10Baron took 8 of 10
S4Baron2Hetnar5n = 7Hetnar took 5 of 7
S5Baron2Hetnar1n = 3Baron took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBaronHetnarB − HBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.038.6−2.6per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaronHetnarBasisWin rate · lifetime873 / 1813 vs 718 / 117248.2%61.3%873 / 1813 vs 718 / 1172Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match39.838.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HetnarBaron 2.50/Hetnar 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.1%
Hetnar · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Hetnar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 15 · 06:05M. Baron185850K. Hetnar331111113
WAug 24 · 09:50M. Baron361114113K. Hetnar2681260
WAug 24 · 05:40M. Baron4381113113K. Hetnar391191181
WAug 21 · 09:25M. Baron4011711113K. Hetnar30611761
LAug 21 · 03:25M. Baron44711111142K. Hetnar48114913113
LAug 7 · 10:35M. Baron187830K. Hetnar331111113
LAug 7 · 03:00M. Baron30771151K. Hetnar4111118113
WJun 3 · 15:10M. Baron511171110123K. Hetnar49811812102
WMar 12 · 14:55M. Baron521110119113K. Hetnar4591261172
LMar 12 · 08:55M. Baron28551171K. Hetnar4211119113
M. Baron10
LSep 15 · 06:55P. Gumulinski1.83139426133M. Baron1.8311111124112WSep 15 · 04:30M. Baron2.631411113K. Slawinski1.4412980WSep 15 · 03:50P. Przewlocki1.831212591M. Baron1.83141011113LSep 14 · 16:40P. Mecik2.001111113M. Baron1.728990LSep 14 · 15:55J. Pruszkowski1.85811118113M. Baron1.8011961172WSep 14 · 13:55Y. Fomin1.746960M. Baron1.951111113WSep 14 · 13:10G. Wichowski1.5311991182M. Baron2.35611116113LSep 14 · 11:30W. Tobiasz1.951111113M. Baron1.719940LSep 14 · 10:40P. Mecik1.99811911123M. Baron1.68119119102WSep 14 · 09:55J. Pruszkowski1.4571111562M. Baron2.50118811113
K. Hetnar10
LSep 15 · 04:55P. Przewlocki2.38514113113K. Hetnar1.53111271192WSep 15 · 03:25M. Sikon3.001161041K. Hetnar1.3691112113LSep 10 · 17:05K. Hetnar1.8611119592O. Jadach1.80451111113LSep 10 · 15:30K. Hetnar1.85611911152K. Adamus1.80119114173LSep 10 · 14:20K. Hetnar1.429780J. Pelka2.551111113WSep 10 · 12:45K. Hetnar1.34771111113W. Glanowski2.8511113652WSep 10 · 11:30K. Hetnar1.6011116113K. Jablonski2.15941161WSep 10 · 10:20W. Glanowski2.95341151K. Hetnar1.3111118113WSep 10 · 09:30K. Adamus2.029101191K. Hetnar1.6511127113WSep 10 · 08:45K. Hetnar1.83111110113O. Jadach1.87771231
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