TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13128991
Played Sep 15Finished
Mateusz Sikon
Home
3.00
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1196111012411––
Krzysztof Hetnar
Away
1.36
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:22 and never touched — 70.8% is still 70.8%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Hetnar to win
70.8%
70.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMateusz Sikon above · Krzysztof Hetnar below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 74 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Krzysztof Hetnar at 70.8%
74 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Sikon 2–4 Krzysztof Hetnar Mateusz Sikon has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:22What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Hetnar
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Hetnar
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sikon 1365 vs Hetnar 1444
Hetnar
Correct
both rated, 79 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sikon 0% vs Hetnar 40%
Hetnar
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sikon 40% vs Hetnar 60%
Hetnar
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sikon -5 · Hetnar -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Hetnar) · live re-read · sealed at 71% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hetnar form (40%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSikon 3.00 / Hetnar 1.36
Signal prob.27% / 73%
Edge (Hetnar)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13128991
Sikon3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 91 of 272
Down 0–1, comes back15% 25 of 172
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 107
Hetnar1.36
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite69% won 265 of 384
Up 2–0, closes it98% 147 of 150
Up 1–0, closes it85% 216 of 253
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeSikon2wins
AwayHetnar4wins
3 of 6 to a deciderHetnar leads 4–2, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSikonn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayHetnar75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sikon2Hetnar4n = 6Hetnar took 4 of 6
S2Sikon4Hetnar2n = 6Sikon took 4 of 6
S3Sikon2Hetnar4n = 6Hetnar took 4 of 6
S4Sikon2Hetnar3n = 5Hetnar took 3 of 5
S5Sikon1Hetnar2n = 3Hetnar took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricSikonHetnarS − HBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match36.743.7−7.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSikonHetnarBasisWin rate · lifetime154 / 405 vs 722 / 117538%61.5%154 / 405 vs 722 / 1175Avg sets wonper match1.72.3per matchAvg pointsper match36.238.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HetnarSikon 3.00/Hetnar 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.8%
Hetnar · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Hetnar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 26 · 14:40M. Sikon4151111143K. Hetnar381178121
LAug 26 · 06:05M. Sikon45711111242K. Hetnar50117714113
LAug 17 · 10:35M. Sikon2564150K. Hetnar391111173
LAug 17 · 03:00M. Sikon30912541K. Hetnar43111011113
WJul 20 · 10:35M. Sikon42111235113K. Hetnar46710111172
LJul 20 · 03:00M. Sikon3711941122K. Hetnar46511118113
M. Sikon10
LSep 14 · 13:55M. Sikon2.50411981P. Kurek1.5011511113LSep 14 · 12:40M. Sikon1.83961191P. Przewlocki1.8311115113LSep 14 · 11:25M. Sikon2.7568100K. Slawinski1.401111123LSep 14 · 10:10J. Kaczmarek1.83811119123M. Sikon1.83116811102LSep 14 · 09:25M. Sikon2.75781131L. Oracz1.4011117113WSep 14 · 07:45M. Sikon1.9111912113J. Kaczmarek1.809111091WSep 14 · 06:30M. Sikon1.801111107153P. Przewlocki1.91771211132WSep 14 · 05:15M. Sikon2.631511113K. Slawinski1.4413990LSep 14 · 04:10P. Kurek1.50101211113M. Sikon2.501210281WSep 14 · 03:25M. Sikon3.00311911113L. Oracz1.3611611782
K. Hetnar10
LSep 10 · 17:05K. Hetnar1.8611119592O. Jadach1.80451111113LSep 10 · 15:30K. Hetnar1.85611911152K. Adamus1.80119114173LSep 10 · 14:20K. Hetnar1.429780J. Pelka2.551111113WSep 10 · 12:45K. Hetnar1.34771111113W. Glanowski2.8511113652WSep 10 · 11:30K. Hetnar1.6011116113K. Jablonski2.15941161WSep 10 · 10:20W. Glanowski2.95341151K. Hetnar1.3111118113WSep 10 · 09:30K. Adamus2.029101191K. Hetnar1.6511127113WSep 10 · 08:45K. Hetnar1.83111110113O. Jadach1.87771231LSep 10 · 07:10K. Hetnar1.49118831K. Jablonski2.4581111113WSep 10 · 06:20J. Pelka2.45117761K. Hetnar1.4761111113
Upcoming Matches
M. Sikon
Sep 15 · 04:10M. Sikon3.25P. Gumulinski1.33—Sep 15 · 05:15M. Sikon3.25K. Slawinski1.33—Sep 15 · 06:30M. Sikon1.73P. Przewlocki2.00—Sep 15 · 07:45M. Sikon1.83M. Baron1.83—Sep 15 · 09:25M. Sikon3.00K. Hetnar1.36—Sep 15 · 10:10M. Sikon1.83M. Baron1.83—Sep 15 · 11:25M. Sikon3.40K. Slawinski1.30—Sep 15 · 12:40M. Sikon1.73P. Przewlocki2.00—Sep 15 · 13:55M. Sikon3.25P. Gumulinski1.33—
K. Hetnar
Sep 15 · 04:55K. Hetnar1.53P. Przewlocki2.38—Sep 15 · 06:05K. Hetnar1.50M. Baron2.50—Sep 15 · 07:20K. Hetnar1.91K. Slawinski1.80—Sep 15 · 08:35K. Hetnar1.67P. Gumulinski2.10—Sep 15 · 09:25K. Hetnar1.36M. Sikon3.00—Sep 15 · 11:00K. Hetnar1.53P. Przewlocki2.38—Sep 15 · 12:15K. Hetnar1.67P. Gumulinski2.10—Sep 15 · 13:30K. Hetnar1.91K. Slawinski1.80—Sep 15 · 14:40K. Hetnar1.50M. Baron2.50—
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