TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13127596
Played Sep 14Finished
Yurij Fomin
Home
1.74
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611911611––––
Mariusz Baron
Away
1.95
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:47 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMariusz Baron to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
54 points played in total.
Set by set
611911611––––
H2H Yurij Fomin 1–4 Mariusz Baron Yurij Fomin has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Baron beat Fomin 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:47What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.74 (53%)
Fomin
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Baron
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fomin 1327 vs Baron 1265
Fomin
Wrong
both rated, 62 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fomin 40% vs Baron 60%
Baron
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fomin 30% vs Baron 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Fomin +1 · Baron +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Fomin) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fomin form (40%) is below what odds imply (57%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFomin 1.74 / Baron 1.95
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Fomin)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13127596
Fomin1.74
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite70% won 88 of 125
Up 2–0, closes it98% 46 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it91% 57 of 63
Baron1.95
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 177 of 451
Down 0–1, comes back25% 61 of 246
Down 0–2, comes back9% 12 of 128
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeFomin1wins
AwayBaron4wins
2 of 5 to a deciderBaron leads 4–1, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFominn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayBaron100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fomin2Baron3n = 5Baron took 3 of 5
S2Fomin1Baron4n = 5Baron took 4 of 5
S3Fomin4Baron1n = 5Fomin took 4 of 5
S4Fomin2Baron3n = 5Baron took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away240%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricFominBaronF − BBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match38.044.2−6.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFominBaronBasisWin rate · lifetime267 / 548 vs 871 / 181348.7%48%267 / 548 vs 871 / 1813Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.039.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FominFomin 1.74/Baron 1.95
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.4%
Fomin · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Baron won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LAug 19 · 22:00Y. Fomin3631111652M. Baron49118811113
LJun 25 · 04:00Y. Fomin371110791M. Baron4391211113
WMay 23 · 07:30Y. Fomin4011612113M. Baron369111061
LFeb 3 · 13:20Y. Fomin47116111452M. Baron541311712113
LFeb 3 · 09:20Y. Fomin30551191M. Baron3911116113
Y. Fomin10
WSep 14 · 12:45W. Tobiasz1.95511461Y. Fomin1.7011611113LSep 14 · 11:55Y. Fomin2.30611591J. Pruszkowski1.5511611113WSep 14 · 10:20Y. Fomin1.751011911113W. Tobiasz1.9012811962LSep 14 · 09:05Y. Fomin1.7571181192P. Mecik1.95117116113LSep 14 · 07:55Y. Fomin1.74981181M. Baron1.9511118113LSep 14 · 06:45G. Wichowski1.5661112113Y. Fomin2.171181081LSep 14 · 05:55Y. Fomin1.851011471J. Pruszkowski1.8012611113WSep 11 · 08:45Y. Fomin1.601111113J. Nowak2.155480LSep 11 · 07:10Y. Fomin2.20471161M. Lebek1.5711115113LSep 11 · 06:00Y. Fomin1.8312711882M. Adamus1.861011811113
M. Baron10
WSep 14 · 13:10G. Wichowski1.5311991182M. Baron2.35611116113LSep 14 · 11:30W. Tobiasz1.951111113M. Baron1.719940LSep 14 · 10:40P. Mecik1.99811911123M. Baron1.68119119102WSep 14 · 09:55J. Pruszkowski1.4571111562M. Baron2.50118811113WSep 14 · 07:55Y. Fomin1.74981181M. Baron1.9511118113LSep 14 · 07:10W. Tobiasz1.95125912113M. Baron1.711011111062LSep 14 · 05:30G. Wichowski1.481511113M. Baron2.3613590LSep 11 · 13:55M. Baron2.381211111062O. Jadach1.53147912113LSep 11 · 12:40M. Baron1.73711111172J. Pelka2.00111376113WSep 11 · 11:25M. Baron1.6781115113P. Slosarczyk2.101181371
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