TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13126260
Played Sep 14Finished
Wojciech Tobiasz
Home
1.95
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
12105119111210116
Mariusz Baron
Away
1.71
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:53 and never touched — 60.2% is still 60.2%
Graded at full timeMariusz Baron to win
60.2%
60.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
97 points played in total.
Set by set
12105119111210116
H2H Wojciech Tobiasz 11–16 Mariusz Baron Wojciech Tobiasz has won 11 of their 27 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:53What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.71 (53%)
Baron
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-16 in 27
Baron
Wrong
gap of 5 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tobiasz 1283 vs Baron 1257
Tobiasz
Correct
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tobiasz 20% vs Baron 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tobiasz 30% vs Baron 10%
Tobiasz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tobiasz +1 · Baron -3
Baron
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Baron) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baron form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTobiasz 1.95 / Baron 1.71
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Baron)+0.7pp
TT Elite Series · #13126260
Tobiasz1.95
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog38% won 78 of 206
Down 0–1, comes back19% 22 of 114
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 66
Baron1.71
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite56% won 202 of 359
Up 2–0, closes it82% 95 of 116
Up 1–0, closes it70% 143 of 205
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTobiasz5wins
AwayBaron5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTobiasz66.7%4 of 6
AwayBaron75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tobiasz6Baron4n = 10Tobiasz took 6 of 10
S2Tobiasz2Baron8n = 10Baron took 8 of 10
S3Tobiasz6Baron4n = 10Tobiasz took 6 of 10
S4Tobiasz6Baron3n = 9Tobiasz took 6 of 9
S5Tobiasz3Baron3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTobiaszBaronT − BBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.743.6−1.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTobiaszBaronBasisWin rate · lifetime327 / 709 vs 869 / 180946.1%48%327 / 709 vs 869 / 1809Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.839.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BaronTobiasz 1.95/Baron 1.71
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Baron · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Tobiasz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 14 · 07:10W. Tobiasz49125912113M. Baron481011111062
LJan 1 · 06:35W. Tobiasz24117421M. Baron4181111113
LDec 27 · 14:10W. Tobiasz4212651182M. Baron501011117113
WDec 27 · 06:30W. Tobiasz4312119113M. Baron311051151
WNov 27 · 14:15W. Tobiasz351311113M. Baron2611780
LNov 27 · 06:30W. Tobiasz5713111111112M. Baron59151399133
WNov 21 · 18:05W. Tobiasz48117118113M. Baron4281181142
WNov 21 · 09:45W. Tobiasz518101111113M. Baron4411129662
LOct 3 · 17:05W. Tobiasz25541241M. Baron43111110113
LOct 3 · 08:45W. Tobiasz4366111372M. Baron521111811113
W. Tobiasz10
WSep 14 · 09:30G. Wichowski1.4271210101W. Tobiasz2.50111012123LSep 14 · 08:45W. Tobiasz2.856810J. Pruszkowski1.351111113WSep 14 · 06:20P. Mecik1.88771111102W. Tobiasz1.76111184123LSep 7 · 16:40R. Skotniczny1.4581211113W. Tobiasz2.551110731LSep 7 · 15:55S. Szostok1.509111111113W. Tobiasz2.4011981342LSep 7 · 13:55Y. Fomin1.70111167123W. Tobiasz2.00381111102LSep 7 · 13:10G. Wichowski1.291511113W. Tobiasz3.3013990LSep 7 · 11:30P. Mecik1.9571111113W. Tobiasz1.75115851LSep 7 · 10:40R. Skotniczny1.25411911113W. Tobiasz3.5011711532LSep 7 · 09:55S. Szostok1.50681111113W. Tobiasz2.3611119582
M. Baron10
WSep 14 · 07:55Y. Fomin1.74981181M. Baron1.9511118113LSep 14 · 05:30G. Wichowski1.481511113M. Baron2.3613590LSep 11 · 13:55M. Baron2.381211111062O. Jadach1.53147912113LSep 11 · 12:40M. Baron1.73711111172J. Pelka2.00111376113WSep 11 · 11:25M. Baron1.6781115113P. Slosarczyk2.101181371LSep 11 · 10:10Z. Sobkow1.67811114163M. Baron2.10118711142LSep 11 · 09:25M. Baron2.10611471O. Sokolowski1.6711411113LSep 11 · 07:45M. Baron2.10108110Z. Sobkow1.671211133LSep 11 · 06:30M. Baron1.73912211102J. Pelka2.001110119123LSep 11 · 05:15M. Baron1.6769111142P. Slosarczyk2.10111189113
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