TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13126680
Played Sep 14Finished
Yurij Fomin
Home
1.74
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911811118811––
Mariusz Baron
Away
1.95
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:40 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMariusz Baron to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
77 points played in total.
Set by set
911811118811––
H2H Yurij Fomin 1–4 Mariusz Baron Yurij Fomin has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:40What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.74 (53%)
Fomin
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Baron
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fomin 1341 vs Baron 1252
Fomin
Wrong
both rated, 88 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fomin 20% vs Baron 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fomin 50% vs Baron 10%
Fomin
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fomin -2 · Baron -3
Baron
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Fomin) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baron form (20%) is below what odds imply (51%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFomin 1.74 / Baron 1.95
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Fomin)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13126680
Fomin1.74
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite70% won 88 of 125
Up 2–0, closes it98% 46 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it91% 57 of 63
Baron1.95
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog39% won 177 of 451
Down 0–1, comes back25% 61 of 246
Down 0–2, comes back9% 12 of 128
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeFomin1wins
AwayBaron4wins
2 of 5 to a deciderBaron leads 4–1, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFominn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayBaron100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fomin2Baron3n = 5Baron took 3 of 5
S2Fomin1Baron4n = 5Baron took 4 of 5
S3Fomin4Baron1n = 5Fomin took 4 of 5
S4Fomin2Baron3n = 5Baron took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away240%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricFominBaronF − BBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match38.044.2−6.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFominBaronBasisWin rate · lifetime265 / 544 vs 869 / 180848.7%48.1%265 / 544 vs 869 / 1808Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.039.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FominFomin 1.74/Baron 1.95
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Fomin · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Baron won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LAug 19 · 22:00Y. Fomin3631111652M. Baron49118811113
LJun 25 · 04:00Y. Fomin371110791M. Baron4391211113
WMay 23 · 07:30Y. Fomin4011612113M. Baron369111061
LFeb 3 · 13:20Y. Fomin47116111452M. Baron541311712113
LFeb 3 · 09:20Y. Fomin30551191M. Baron3911116113
Y. Fomin10
LSep 14 · 09:05Y. Fomin1.7571181192P. Mecik1.95117116113LSep 14 · 06:45G. Wichowski1.5661112113Y. Fomin2.171181081LSep 14 · 05:55Y. Fomin1.851011471J. Pruszkowski1.8012611113WSep 11 · 08:45Y. Fomin1.601111113J. Nowak2.155480LSep 11 · 07:10Y. Fomin2.20471161M. Lebek1.5711115113LSep 11 · 06:00Y. Fomin1.8312711882M. Adamus1.861011811113WSep 11 · 04:25Y. Fomin1.801311113R. Idaczyk1.8611850WSep 11 · 03:10Y. Fomin1.271111113R. Komandzik3.206850WSep 7 · 16:20Y. Fomin2.901112113G. Wichowski1.3471040LSep 7 · 15:05Y. Fomin2.401110911102R. Skotniczny1.50612116123
M. Baron10
LSep 14 · 07:10W. Tobiasz1.95125912113M. Baron1.711011111062LSep 14 · 05:30G. Wichowski1.481511113M. Baron2.3613590LSep 11 · 13:55M. Baron2.381211111062O. Jadach1.53147912113LSep 11 · 12:40M. Baron1.73711111172J. Pelka2.00111376113WSep 11 · 11:25M. Baron1.6781115113P. Slosarczyk2.101181371LSep 11 · 10:10Z. Sobkow1.67811114163M. Baron2.10118711142LSep 11 · 09:25M. Baron2.10611471O. Sokolowski1.6711411113LSep 11 · 07:45M. Baron2.10108110Z. Sobkow1.671211133LSep 11 · 06:30M. Baron1.73912211102J. Pelka2.001110119123LSep 11 · 05:15M. Baron1.6769111142P. Slosarczyk2.10111189113
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