TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13127550
Played Sep 14Finished
Wojciech Tobiasz
Home
1.95
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511116411611––
Yurij Fomin
Away
1.70
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:14 and never touched — 66.6% is still 66.6%
Graded at full timeYurij Fomin to win
66.6%
66.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
65 points played in total.
Set by set
511116411611––
H2H Wojciech Tobiasz 24–33 Yurij Fomin Wojciech Tobiasz has won 24 of their 57 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Fomin beat Tobiasz 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:14What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.70 (53%)
Fomin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-33 in 57
Fomin
Correct
gap of 9 in 57, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tobiasz 1287 vs Fomin 1316
Fomin
Correct
both rated, 29 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tobiasz 60% vs Fomin 20%
Tobiasz
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tobiasz 40% vs Fomin 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tobiasz +1 · Fomin -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Fomin) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fomin form (20%) is below what odds imply (59%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTobiasz 1.95 / Fomin 1.70
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Fomin)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13127550
Tobiasz1.95
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog38% won 78 of 206
Down 0–1, comes back19% 22 of 114
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 66
Fomin1.70
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite70% won 88 of 125
Up 2–0, closes it98% 46 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it91% 57 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTobiasz5wins
AwayFomin5wins
8 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 8 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTobiasz50%3 of 6
AwayFomin50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tobiasz6Fomin4n = 10Tobiasz took 6 of 10
S2Tobiasz2Fomin8n = 10Fomin took 8 of 10
S3Tobiasz5Fomin5n = 10split evenly
S4Tobiasz6Fomin3n = 9Tobiasz took 6 of 9
S5Tobiasz4Fomin4n = 8split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricTobiaszFominT − FBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match43.245.0−1.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTobiaszFominBasisWin rate · lifetime326 / 709 vs 266 / 54746%48.6%326 / 709 vs 266 / 547Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FominTobiasz 1.95/Fomin 1.70
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.6%
Fomin · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Fomin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 14 · 10:20W. Tobiasz4612811962Y. Fomin521011911113
LSep 7 · 13:55W. Tobiasz43381111102Y. Fomin47111167123
WSep 7 · 07:55W. Tobiasz40110711113Y. Fomin4361111692
LAug 17 · 15:30W. Tobiasz4411511982Y. Fomin50811911113
WAug 17 · 09:30W. Tobiasz491111610113Y. Fomin4787111292
LJun 29 · 11:55W. Tobiasz451110311102Y. Fomin47712115123
WJun 29 · 05:55W. Tobiasz50713811113Y. Fomin51111111992
WJun 22 · 15:05W. Tobiasz4211812113Y. Fomin334111081
WJun 22 · 08:20W. Tobiasz561191114113Y. Fomin47131151262
LJun 15 · 13:55W. Tobiasz178270Y. Fomin331111113
W. Tobiasz10
WSep 14 · 11:30W. Tobiasz1.951111113M. Baron1.719940LSep 14 · 10:20Y. Fomin1.751011911113W. Tobiasz1.9012811962WSep 14 · 09:30G. Wichowski1.4271210101W. Tobiasz2.50111012123LSep 14 · 08:45W. Tobiasz2.856810J. Pruszkowski1.351111113WSep 14 · 07:10W. Tobiasz1.95125912113M. Baron1.711011111062WSep 14 · 06:20P. Mecik1.88771111102W. Tobiasz1.76111184123LSep 7 · 16:40R. Skotniczny1.4581211113W. Tobiasz2.551110731LSep 7 · 15:55S. Szostok1.509111111113W. Tobiasz2.4011981342LSep 7 · 13:55Y. Fomin1.70111167123W. Tobiasz2.00381111102LSep 7 · 13:10G. Wichowski1.291511113W. Tobiasz3.3013990
Y. Fomin10
LSep 14 · 11:55Y. Fomin2.30611591J. Pruszkowski1.5511611113WSep 14 · 10:20Y. Fomin1.751011911113W. Tobiasz1.9012811962LSep 14 · 09:05Y. Fomin1.7571181192P. Mecik1.95117116113LSep 14 · 07:55Y. Fomin1.74981181M. Baron1.9511118113LSep 14 · 06:45G. Wichowski1.5661112113Y. Fomin2.171181081LSep 14 · 05:55Y. Fomin1.851011471J. Pruszkowski1.8012611113WSep 11 · 08:45Y. Fomin1.601111113J. Nowak2.155480LSep 11 · 07:10Y. Fomin2.20471161M. Lebek1.5711115113LSep 11 · 06:00Y. Fomin1.8312711882M. Adamus1.861011811113WSep 7 · 13:55Y. Fomin1.70111167123W. Tobiasz2.00381111102
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