TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13128908
Played Sep 15Finished
Mariusz Baron
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1177111412911911
Mateusz Sikon
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:02 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMateusz Sikon to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMariusz Baron above · Mateusz Sikon below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 102 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Mateusz Sikon at 54.0%
102 points played in total.
H2H Mariusz Baron 5–4 Mateusz Sikon Mateusz Sikon has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Baron beat Sikon 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:02What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Sikon
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-4 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baron 1293 vs Sikon 1345
Sikon
Correct
both rated, 52 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baron 40% vs Sikon 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baron 50% vs Sikon 20%
Baron
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Baron -1 · Sikon -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sikon)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sikon form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaron 1.83 / Sikon 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Sikon)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13128908
Baron1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Sikon1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeBaron5wins
AwaySikon4wins
4 of 9 to a deciderBaron leads 5–4, and 4 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaron75%3 of 4
AwaySikon60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baron4Sikon5n = 9Sikon took 5 of 9
S2Baron4Sikon5n = 9Sikon took 5 of 9
S3Baron6Sikon3n = 9Baron took 6 of 9
S4Baron2Sikon6n = 8Sikon took 6 of 8
S5Baron3Sikon1n = 4Baron took 3 of 4
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home333%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricBaronSikonB − SBasisWins54+1in 9 meetingsFirst set45−1of 9Avg pointsper match41.239.4+1.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaronSikonBasisWin rate · lifetime874 / 1816 vs 156 / 41148.1%38%874 / 1816 vs 156 / 411Avg sets wonper match2.11.7per matchAvg pointsper match39.836.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SikonBaron 1.83/Sikon 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Sikon · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Sikon won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 15 · 07:45M. Baron551611710113M. Sikon50146111272
WSep 6 · 23:55M. Baron44111111113M. Sikon30134761
LSep 6 · 17:55M. Baron381171191M. Sikon4413119113
LAug 18 · 06:45M. Baron4711911882M. Sikon45811411113
WAug 1 · 05:10M. Baron491111115113M. Sikon4281371132
LJul 10 · 21:20M. Baron165650M. Sikon331111113
WJul 10 · 15:25M. Baron3961111113M. Sikon29117741
LJul 7 · 21:20M. Baron33511981M. Sikon4111811113
WJul 7 · 15:25M. Baron50118119113M. Sikon4191171132
M. Baron10
LSep 15 · 09:00M. Baron3.005117121K. Slawinski1.3611811143WSep 15 · 07:45M. Sikon1.83146111272M. Baron1.831611710113LSep 15 · 06:55P. Gumulinski1.83139426133M. Baron1.8311111124112LSep 15 · 06:05M. Baron2.505850K. Hetnar1.501111113WSep 15 · 04:30M. Baron2.631411113K. Slawinski1.4412980WSep 15 · 03:50P. Przewlocki1.831212591M. Baron1.83141011113LSep 14 · 16:40P. Mecik2.001111113M. Baron1.728990LSep 14 · 15:55J. Pruszkowski1.85811118113M. Baron1.8011961172WSep 14 · 13:55Y. Fomin1.746960M. Baron1.951111113WSep 14 · 13:10G. Wichowski1.5311991182M. Baron2.35611116113
M. Sikon10
LSep 15 · 09:25M. Sikon2.7534110K. Hetnar1.401111133LSep 15 · 07:45M. Sikon1.83146111272M. Baron1.831611710113WSep 15 · 06:30M. Sikon1.7316817113P. Przewlocki2.0014111591LSep 15 · 05:15M. Sikon3.25117791K. Slawinski1.3341111113WSep 15 · 04:10P. Gumulinski1.3311891162M. Sikon3.25711115113LSep 15 · 03:25M. Sikon3.001161041K. Hetnar1.3691112113LSep 14 · 13:55M. Sikon2.50411981P. Kurek1.5011511113LSep 14 · 12:40M. Sikon1.83961191P. Przewlocki1.8311115113LSep 14 · 11:25M. Sikon2.7568100K. Slawinski1.401111123LSep 14 · 10:10J. Kaczmarek1.83811119123M. Sikon1.83116811102
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